The International Grains Council (IGC) updated on April 23, 2026 its estimates of the global balance of grains and soybeans for the ongoing and upcoming marketing campaign. It raised by 4 million tonnes (Mt) compared to the previous month the global production of grains (wheat and coarse grains) for the 2025-2026 campaign, to 2,474 Mt (+6% year-on-year). This increase is justified by a rise in estimated corn production in Argentina.
Global consumption decreased by 1 Mt in a month, due to lower consumption expected in wheat for human consumption, especially in India, “which more than offsets the upward revision of forecasts for animal feed corn,” the IGC said. The increase in supply and decline in consumption bring the end stocks of the 2025-2026 campaign to 638 Mt. They increased by 6 Mt compared to the previous month, “including a significant revision of estimates for wheat,” and by 9% year-on-year.
Excellent production for the 2026-2027 campaign
Moreover, the IGC specifies that “concerns about the financial accessibility of fertilizers and decisions regarding their application have heightened uncertainties about harvest prospects for the [marketing] campaign of 2026-2027.” This particularly affects certain regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where upcoming needs may not be fully met. Despite a decrease in some projections (especially in wheat and corn), totaling 3 Mt, global grain production is expected to be the second highest ever recorded, at 2,414 Mt.
Global consumption in 2026-2027 is forecast to increase for the fourth consecutive year, and end-of-campaign stocks could tighten “due to withdrawals from wheat, corn, and barley stocks.”
Strong demand from Asia for South American soybeans
Regarding soybeans, the current marketing campaign is “marked by significant export flows from South America to Asia,” the IGC points out. Global demand for soybean imports is expected to increase by 1% in 2025-2026 to reach a new peak.
World soybean production for 2026-2027 is expected to reach a record of 441 Mt (+3% year-on-year), “thanks to the increase in cultivated areas and improved productivity of the main producers,” the organization predicts.
The IGC anticipates an increase in demand for the next campaign (+3%), considering the abundance and attractive prices, but stocks are expected to decrease. Under the effect of demand from Asian importers, trade could increase by 2% on an annual basis. – Justine Papin
