Panorama of customer risk
Reading Time: 8 minutes
As business bankruptcies have reached historic levels in recent months, the situation in the Middle East could annihilate any hope of a return to controlled casualty rates. In this context, providers of customer risk management are expected to demonstrate agility and adapt their solutions and services to an environment that has become structurally uncertain.
After a year in 2025 marked by a record volume of business bankruptcies, especially in the fourth quarter, the beginning of 2026 does not seem promising. Nearly 19,000 bankruptcies were recorded in the first three months of the year, a number even higher than the first quarters of 2024 (18,100) and 2025 (18,500). Over a rolling year, 71,000 companies are undergoing judicial proceedings. “Therefore, insolvency in France is at its highest level, even though its growth rate is slowing down,” notes Thierry Millon, director of studies at Altares.
The conflict in the Middle East, which is now in addition to the front line in Ukraine, increases the risk of inflation, especially due to rising energy prices. “The increase in oil prices and the subsequent rise in gas prices are putting pressure on the margins of many companies and weakening their cash flow,” explains Laurent Treilhes, executive committee chairman of Allianz Trade. Some sectors, such as those heavily dependent on energy costs like road transporters, could suffer more than others from this situation. This sector was already under strain in 2025 and is now facing a significant impact from rising oil prices. The insolvency of Ziegler France in early March perfectly illustrates the challenges faced by road transporters.
Other sectors, such as agricultural production or goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, could also be impacted by conflicts in the Middle East. High levels of insolvency raise questions about the financial, logistical, and structural weaknesses of the French entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Debt payment terms still too high
“To cope with the current difficulties, the most vulnerable companies are still trying to play with intercompany payment terms to compensate for contracting cash flow,” notes Thierry Millon. The situation with payment terms could improve in the coming years with the introduction of e-invoicing reform starting in September 2026. Automating invoice processing should limit companies’ ability to play with payment terms. However, payment terms remain too long, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.
In this context, proactive customer risk management is essential to avoid the repercussions of political and economic uncertainties on the financial health of companies. It is crucial for companies to invest in new technologies to improve prediction models for better customer risk anticipation.
These technologies should be integrated into existing tools to make the most of data, refine risk analysis, and strengthen control processes. Most customer risk management professionals now incorporate these technologies into their tools to help companies navigate uncertain environments effectively.
