Conflict in the Middle East: A Determining Factor for the Global Economy

1. Conflict in the Middle East: a determining factor for the global economy: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stated that the outlook for the global economy is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the unpredictable evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In its latest report on the World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts that if the conflict continues for a few more weeks before stabilizing markets by mid-year, global economic growth this year will be 3.1%, lower than the 3.3% projected in the previous report. Although the impact until 2026 is not considered significant, the IMF warns that, in the worst-case scenario, growth could drop by up to 1.3 percentage points, posing the risk of recession.

2. Bloomberg predicts a rebound in Chinese economic growth in the first quarter of 2026: The Chinese economy is expected to recover in the first quarter of 2026, giving policymakers more time to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East before considering stimulus measures. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by 4.8% on a yearly basis. In this case, the growth rate would exceed the 4.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, the lowest since the reopening of the economy after the pandemic at the end of 2022.

3. On April 20, the United States began repaying $166 billion in illegal tariffs: these are tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court declared illegal last February. In a document filed with the Court on April 14, the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) indicated that it had completed the first phase of its CAPE refund system. Instead of processing refunds for each individual shipment, the system consolidates tariffs so that importers receive a single payment, including any applicable interest.

4. South Korea Emerges as a Global Leader in Artificial Intelligence: According to the “AI Index 2026” report from Stanford University, South Korea ranks third globally in the number of outstanding artificial intelligence (AI) models published in 2025, behind the United States and China, with five exceptional models. Additionally, South Korea maintains the top spot globally for the number of AI patents per capita for the second consecutive year. The deployment of AI in the manufacturing and industrial sectors is also increasing, with deployment rates significantly rising in the second half of 2025.

5. Sharp increase in Chinese aluminum exports due to conflict in the Middle East: China’s aluminum exports are expected to experience a sharp increase in the coming months as consumers seek alternative sources to offset disruptions in the Persian Gulf region. Currently, the price gap between international aluminum and Chinese aluminum is at its highest level since 2022. This situation presents significant opportunities for Chinese foundries, especially since domestic aluminum stocks have just reached their highest level in six years.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/diem-tin-kinh-te-the-gioi-noi-bat-ngay-1542026-20260415203850302.htm