The fragile truce between the United States and Iran in recent days has done little to restore confidence in this vital maritime corridor, where persistent tensions – including the recent announcement of an American blockade targeting ships using Iranian ports – keep vessels at bay and supply chains under pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategic waterway, ensures the transit of a significant portion of global energy and agricultural supplies. Disruptions since the start of hostilities on February 28 have hindered the flow of oil, gas, and fertilizers needed for recently sown crops, with repercussions well beyond the Middle East.
“Between 30 and 35% of crude oil, 20% of natural gas, and between 20 and 30% of other inputs are no longer flowing,” said the chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Maximo Torero.
“That’s the extent of the potential impact,” he warned.
Chokepoint, despite the truce
While the ceasefire briefly raised hopes for a resumption of maritime traffic, uncertainty remains high. Talks between Washington and Tehran, mediated this weekend by Pakistan, have not resulted in any progress.
Many ships remain immobilized in the Gulf, while new shipments have not yet traversed the corridor. Ship owners and insurers hesitate to expose their assets and crews in a context of persistent insecurity. Even in case of easing tensions, it will take several days, or even weeks, to return to normal.
A critical deadline, warned David Laborde, director of FAO’s Agri-Food Systems Economics Division.
A significant portion of shipments that left the Gulf before the crisis have already reached their destination – meaning the world is now entering a phase where supplies could start to tighten.
“We are going to witness a real halt in supplies in the coming days,” he cautioned.
The global food markets remain stable for now, but supply disruptions raise concerns for the months ahead.
A crisis deferred – for now
Despite a marked increase in input costs, global food prices have not skyrocketed yet – a trend that, according to FAO economists, should not be interpreted as a sign of stability.
The FAO food price index for March only recorded modest increases, reflecting strong global stocks and good harvests last year.
“We have enough supplies and good stocks that allow the agri-food system to be resilient in the face of this shock,” explained Mr. Torero.
But this cushion could be short-lived. As the planting season approaches in the coming weeks, farmers facing higher costs and limited access to fertilizers could reduce their inputs or change their crops, weighing on yields.
“If we do not have the inputs at the right time, producers will have to produce with fewer inputs,” he explained. “And thus, yields could be lower.”
This could eventually drive up food prices later in the year and the following year.
The risk of a ‘perfect storm’
FAO economists warn that the situation could deteriorate further if other factors come into play – such as export restrictions or climate shocks like El Niño.
In previous crises, some countries restricted exports to protect their domestic markets, exacerbating global shortages.
“We must avoid export restrictions – especially now for fertilizers and energy,” insisted Mr. Torero, warning that in the absence of coordination, the most vulnerable countries could be excluded from access to essential resources.
A global risk with local consequences
While the crisis is centered in the Middle East, its effects are spreading rapidly. Asian and Global South countries are particularly exposed due to their dependence on energy and fertilizer imports, as well as their agricultural calendar.
“This will spread from east to west – but also from south to north,” explained Mr. Torero.
The consequences are both economic and humanitarian. Rising food prices hit the poorest households hardest, while inflation could force governments to tighten their monetary policy, slowing growth and worsening debt levels.
Farmers also face increasing pressure. Rising costs and uncertainty squeeze their margins and increase the risk of sustained production disruptions.
“If pushed too hard, we risk driving them to bankruptcy,” Mr. Laborde warned. “And that would lead to supply problems over a longer period.”
Warning signs
In some regions of Asia, the first signs of disruption are beginning to appear.
In South Asia, the increase in fuel and fertilizer costs is starting to impact food prices and agricultural decisions, putting pressure on import-dependent economies.
In Nepal, where millions of households rely on remittances from Gulf countries, disruptions in mobility and rising transport costs are being felt – raising concerns that an external shock could quickly translate into national difficulties.
A narrow window of action
FAO is calling on governments and international financial institutions to act swiftly.
In the short term, priorities include avoiding trade restrictions, supporting vulnerable households through social protection schemes, and ensuring liquidity for farmers, particularly through credit lines and import financing.
In the longer term, this crisis highlights the need to diversify energy sources, strengthen infrastructure, and reduce dependence on strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, FAO emphasizes: a major food crisis is not inevitable – but the window to prevent it is closing fast.
“Time is crucial. Let’s avoid a perfect storm: be aware of the risks, implement the right policies, and pursue the necessary diplomatic solutions to prevent a food crisis we don’t need,” urged Mr. Torero.
