War in the Middle East: the energy shock in France will be less significant than that caused by the invasion

The exchange rate explains in particular that the shock is less felt this year, but also the lesser dependence of France on oil products.

The energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East will have less impact on French growth than that caused by the war in Ukraine in 2022, or during the oil shocks of the 1970s, INSEE estimated on Wednesday June 17.

Malgré

the recent surge in the price of oil, which went as far as doubling compared to 2025

where a barrel of quality Brent traded at around 60 dollars, the crisis would reduce national income by a total of 0.2 points this year. However, it was 1.4 points in 2022 and three points during the oil shocks of the 1970s, the Yom Kippur War in 1973 then the Iranian revolution in 1979, notes INSEE in its quarterly economic report.

The National Institute of Statistics notes in passing that the price peak was not reached during one of these crises, but in June 2008, just before the subprime crisis, when demand was enormous and the price of a barrel exceeded 130 dollars.

The exchange rate explains in particular why the shock is less felt this year

. It was in fact in 2022, when the very depreciated euro was at par with the dollar, that the price of a barrel reached its maximum for the countries of the euro zone.

The continued decline in France’s dependence on oil products

Then, the current crisis is mainly focused on oil while the prices of gas and electricity had also soared in 2022, due to “fears of disruptions in gas supplies after the embargo against Russia”, and “a

unavailability of a large fraction of the French nuclear fleet”.

The continued decline in France’s dependence on oil products also makes a difference, thanks to nuclear power but also to better energy efficiency in industry, according to INSEE.

The institute relève that

“the current shock could even contribute to amplifying the recent trend towards the electrification of the vehicle fleet in France

which would further reduce France’s dependence on petroleum products.

However, the shock is not painless for households. In 2022, the state “had implemented generalized subsidies at the pump”, notes INSEE, while this year the government has only taken very targeted aid measures for businesses and households. As a result, the “purchasing power of petroleum products” of households would currently drop by 20% compared to 2025, exactly as in 2022.