Who wins from the agreement between the United States and Iran?

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An Iranian flag to celebrate the agreement concluded with the United States, a relief in Tehran for supporters of the regime. In front of the cameras, the population generally welcomes the end of the bombings. “I have a positive opinion about this agreement. War and bombs have never been good for anyone”; “At the moment, our situation is very difficult. With this agreement, inflation will perhaps fall. Life will become better for us young people”, believe several Iranians.

But what does this agreement contain? And is this the end of Iranian nuclear power as the United States wanted? Both parties have 60 days from Friday to negotiate. Donald Trump prides himself on having obtained an Iranian commitment not to produce the atomic bomb. But it was in fact already in the 2015 agreement that the American president had torpedoed. Furthermore, nothing is clear about the 400 kilos of highly enriched uranium possessed by the theocratic regime. So, is this a deal favorable to Iran? The Mullahs are communicating that they will recover part of their frozen assets. They imposed their conditions because they held out for 108 days of war against the United States, against the most powerful army in the world.

“These are the radicals within the regime, that is to say the guardians of the revolution who, in a certain way, strengthen their power within the regime. And it is obvious that it is much more difficult to negotiate with them than with a somewhat accommodating regime”explains Thierry Garcin, geopolitologist, associate researcher at Paris Cité University.

Finally, Lebanon is part of the agreement. So, will it put an end to this war? An observation first. Thousands of Lebanese who fled the south bombed by Israel returned home this Monday, June 15. In Nabatieh, residents discover their neighborhoods in ruins. But an Israeli strike left another person dead in the morning. Moreover, in Metula, on the other side of the border, in the Hebrew state, this agreement is seen as a catastrophe. “I think the United States has never seemed so weak. And because of that, it weakens us too. They betrayed us over a plate of lentils and that doesn’t feel good.”estimates an Israeli woman. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained silent for the moment, but his entourage affirms that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon.