"Donald Trump was in a bind" : who emerges victorious from the agreement between the United States and Iran?

• The United States and Iran reached an agreement this Monday, June 15, to immediately end the war in the Middle East.
• Who emerges victorious from these three and a half months of war and these weeks of negotiations?
• Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris and specialist on Iran, responds to TF1info.

Weeks later, here is finally an agreement announced. The United States and Iran agreed this Monday, June 15, to immediately end the war in the Middle East on all fronts. The two countries, which could sign the document soon, will now negotiate within 60 days to “reach a final agreement”specified the Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi. How should these announcements be interpreted? Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), specialist in Iran, enlightens us.

Iran and the United States announce a memorandum of understanding to end the war. Three and a half months after the start of the conflict, is there really a winner?

It is difficult to find them. On the American side, none of the objectives set by Donald Trump at the start of the war have been achieved: the Iranian regime is still in place, and in a certain way, it is even more radical than before; and there has been no progress on Iran’s nuclear program or ballistic program. For its part, Iran resisted, but its economy is doing very badly, the population is suffering and the country has experienced a lot of destruction, estimated at 300 billion dollars.

Between Donald Trump’s announcements on February 28 and the memorandum of understanding, there is a world of difference

Thierry Coville

Memorandum of Understanding includes reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – which was open before the outbreak of war – as well as negotiations on Iranian nuclear powerwhich had already taken place before the conflict. Is this a step backwards?

All for that! The two countries were already negotiating on Iranian nuclear power in February through the Sultanate of Oman. The Omani Minister of Foreign Affairs, who was the mediator, even affirmed that an agreement was not far away. For the United States, it is therefore a total failure to enter the war. Donald Trump had undoubtedly not measured all the consequences of this conflict, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the resistance of Iran, or the attacks by Tehran against all the countries in the region. The American president followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and realized that he was at an impasse. Between what he announced on February 28 and the memorandum of understanding, there is a world of difference.

What about the nuclear program? Can Iran still acquire an atomic bomb?

Iran’s official position has always been that the country does not seek nuclear weapons. In 2015, Tehran signed an agreement that guaranteed that its nuclear program would remain civilian. It was only following Donald Trump’s exit from this agreement in May 2018 that the Iranians changed their strategy to achieve 60% uranium enrichment (compared to 3.7% previously), knowing that 90% is needed to make the bomb. This strategy aims to become a threshold power: mastering the uranium enrichment process to, if necessary, manufacture an atomic bomb. But to date, no secret service has found evidence that Iran has moved to the bomb-building phase.

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The lifting of sanctions against Iran as well as the release of assets are on the table. Can the Iranian regime find itself in a better position than before the start of the war?

Clearly. Before February 28, there was strong protest in Iran following the January protests linked to the repression. The regime was very weakened. Angry Iranians even demanded this war and applauded the first strikes. Let’s remain cautious, but we have the impression that a certain nationalism has returned. There are still huge problems of legitimacy arising for the Islamic Republic of Iran, but the regime appears less threatened than at the start of the year.

Does this step really mark the end of tensions in the region? Israel makes it known that this agreement does not bind them…

Not everything can be fixed at once. This is almost the first time since the revolution that real negotiations will begin between the United States and Iran. The question of relations between Iran and Israel remains unanswered, but a reduction in tensions between Americans and Iranians is already a significant point.