As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian threats to Europe are increasing. Some fear that the hybrid war led by Moscow could turn into a military conflict. If such an eventuality is unlikely in the short term, “we should not conclude that all danger has been ruled out”, believes researcher Céline Marangé.
The risk of a total and military war against Europe must not be neglected, European intelligence services regularly warn. However, Céline Marangé, researcher at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (IRSEM), observes a certain denial in Western Europe. According to her, there is a reluctance to speak of war to describe relations with Russia, while on the Russian side, “we already believe we are at war with Europe”.
“They consider that European countries are already waging war against Russia through Ukraine, but also through sanctions,” explains the author of ‘Europe’s war has begun’, in the show Tout un monde. According to the researcher, this is explained by a much more “extensive” vision of the war in Russia. “That is to say, confrontation applies in the military domain, but also in the economic, informational and political domain,” she specifies.
>> Read also: “We are in a sort of gray zone, neither at war completely but not at peace either”
Since 2022, Russia has been increasing hybrid maneuvers such as cyberattacks, espionage or disinformation. “We have recorded at least 145 acts of sabotage throughout Europe since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine,” says Céline Marangé. “Disorganizing the enemy system, Weakening it politically, undermining national cohesion or arousing distrust in the authorities are ways among others to prepare the ground and prevail in the confrontation.”
>> Listen to Céline Marangé’s analysis in Tout un monde:
The danger not over
A total confrontation is, however, still “unlikely” in the short term, believes the expert. Russia has suffered extremely significant human and material losses in Ukraine in recent years, straining its assault forces and reserves.
“I think that we should not conclude from this that all danger is over,” warns Céline Marangé, “because, on the one hand, she is weakened, but on the other hand, she has acquired absolutely formidable experience in air strikes combined”.
She also underlines that, despite the losses, Moscow has operational superiority, with a significant quantity of men and equipment. “They are also seasoned in war and they do not at all have the same consent to losses as the European armies”, she adds.
>> Read also: France and its allies simulate a war against a fictitious enemy resembling Russia
Above all, according to Céline Marangé, several indicators show that Russia is preparing for the possibility of an extension of the war in Europe. “It’s increasing defense spending really significantly,” she says. “It’s also increasing the size of its army and it’s rearming at full capacity.”
“Revisionist project”
For the IRSEM researcher, if some in Europe did not take the Russian threat seriously, it is because they underestimated Russia’s real objectives. “The war in Ukraine is not aimed at the conquest of a territory, nor even the demilitarization or neutralization of Ukraine. The ambition is much greater,” she said. “Today, the Kremlin, from my point of view, has a real revisionist project which has its source both in imperialism and in revanchism.”
To understand it, we must, according to her, go back to the end of the Cold War. “We believed at that time that democracy had definitively triumphed, that cooperative security and commercial relations would make it possible to bring peace and stability to Europe,” declares Céline Marangé. In Russia, however, the collapse of the Soviet Union has was experienced as “a national humiliation” and today, Moscow seeks to “restore the power of the Russian state”, she continues.
The Kremlin is therefore using the war in Ukraine to bring the country back into the Russian fold, but at the same time, “it is also using this war to impose on Europe a complete overhaul of security arrangements and to accelerate the de-Westernization of the international order”, affirms Céline Marangé. “And this vision of the world is so far removed from the way of thinking that prevailed in European political circles before 2022 that for many it was unthinkable.”
>> Also watch the Géopolitis program dedicated to Russian hybrid warfare in October 2025:
>> Read also: “We are in a sort of gray zone, neither at war completely but not at peace either”
Comments collected by Eric Guevara-Frey
Web adaptation: Emilie Délétroz
