The Russian army occupied only 14 km² of additional Ukrainian territory during the month of May, according to the Ukrainian analyst group Deep State.. This is its lowest rate of progression since October 2023, when the front stabilized following the liberation of Kherson, the fall of Bakhmut then the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
- While Deep State’s figure is still positive, the group says the Russian military has actually declined in the past month.
- Deep State does not publish all the advances of the Ukrainian army in real time for security reasons, and sometimes integrates certain developments on the front into its data with a delay.
- Last month, the Institute for the Study of War estimated that the Russian army had already lost 116 km² of terrain in April..
The slowdown in the progress of the Russian army on the front should be compared with the increase in the number of assaults, which jumped by 37.5% in May, exceeding 7,000 attacks – or around 225 per day.
- This phenomenon of slowing down despite an intensification of attacks, already observed in April, suggests a considerable deterioration in the quality of Russian assaults.
- Numerous videos broadcast on social networks show attacks carried out by only a few soldiers.
- Sometimes a fighter is sent alone. This is then generally eliminated by a drone or a shot before reaching its objective.
It is difficult to see how the Russian general staff could reverse the trend to its advantage on the front, as the reasons for its inability to progress are structural.
- The advantage enjoyed by Moscow in terms of personnel and equipment is no longer enough to ensure tactical domination on the front.
- The saturation of the front by FPV reconnaissance and attack drones made it possible to extend the combat zone to several tens of kilometers in depth.
- While troops and vehicles located near the front are systematically spotted and then targeted, kyiv also carries out strikes against fuel and ammunition depots, command centers, logistics nodes, etc.
If this balance were to persist, Ukraine would have to continue to allocate considerable resources to its army to maintain sufficient pressure on the front. However, this testifies to the failure of Moscow, which is still suffering around 1,000 losses per day, as many as a year ago, without managing to obtain significant results.
