War in the Middle East: the French consume "defensive mode"

“Purchasing power has once again become the primary concern of the French compared to security in March 2026,” according to Credoc.

Barely emerging from the hyperinflation caused by the conflict in Ukraine, the consumption habits of the French have become tense again with the war in the Middle East, which has caused prices to soar at the pump, but not yet on the shelves.

For three months and the rise in gasoline prices, Erickson Delforge, 21, has turned to discount stores like Aldi or Lidl to do his shopping, giving up certain “pleasure products”. No more “candies or cookies”:

“I really only buy what I need.”

testifies to AFP this work-study worker in the sales sector, who came to refuel his car at a service station in the south of Lille.

Still in the capital of Flanders, Mélanie Girardot, a 29-year-old doctor in physics and chemistry, has been “a lot more careful” for several months. “Now I look more at prices and

I do my shopping at Lidl, whereas before I favored organic stores

“, she says.

A sign of the times, “purchasing power has once again become the primary concern of the French compared to security in March 2026”, affirms

AFP

Franck Lehuédé, director of studies and research at Crédoc (Research Center for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions), citing a recent survey by his organization on consumer trends.

Consumers “reacted very, very quickly”

Building on the “experience of 2022-2023”, marked by food inflation of 20% in two years,

consumers “reacted very, very quickly” and went into “defensive mode”

by limiting or pooling their trips and going down “range” in their purchases, continues Franck Lehuédé.

In March, the head of the Mousquetaires/Intermaché group indicated on

BFMTV/RMC

assister à

“a storage phenomenon”

by its customers, of products like pasta, not “for fear of a shortage” but to reduce trips to the supermarket.

The French have “drawn” certain “reflexes like clockwork”, confirms with the

AFP

Gaëlle Le Floch, consumer expert at Kantar Worldpanel.

And this even if food inflation (1.2% in April, according to INSEE) remains very far from the levels reached with the supply crisis in agricultural raw materials caused by the war in Ukraine. Besides,

“the food market (supermarkets, specialized stores, etc., editor’s note) is holding up extremely well”

underlines Gaëlle Le Floch. From the beginning of January to the end of April, volume sales of food and drinks increased by 1% compared to the same period in 2025, and by 0.4% for all consumer products (PGC, hygiene and cleaning products included).

If “the lower classes” (20% of the panel) are “the only ones to have reduced their purchases” of FMCG (-2.3%), trade-offs are observed more generally “to the detriment of non-food (textiles, DIY, etc.) and away from home (restaurants)”, and on more expensive foodstuffs, such as meat (-3%). fish (-6%), fruit (-2.4%) or organic (-2.5%).

Between “a third and 50% of customers who suffer”

Last week on

France Inter

the CEO of Carrefour, Alexandre Bompard, spoke of between “a third and 50% of customers who suffer” and “arbitrate” or “deprive themselves”, despite “stable” prices.

The context also favors the success of the brands’ own brands, which have gained in popularity since 2022 and now represent 40% market share, according to Gaëlle Le Floch. In a Lidl in Lille, Aziz Bendara, a 63-year-old SNCF employee, confides in

AFP

buy “much less” of “big brand products” than before, despite a “good salary”.

Other winners, the discounter Aldi (+0.2 point of market share compared to 2025, at 3%) and local shops (+0.3), according to Gaëlle Le Floch, who also notes the “very good performance” of the leader E.Leclerc (24.2% market share, +0.2).

The crisis in the Middle East will “last”

warned Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. It could be felt more harshly on the shelves, while the specter of a reopening of commercial negotiations between supermarkets and suppliers to pass on the increase in the costs of fuel, gas and fertilizers looms.

Waiting for,

the French “try not to deprive themselves on summer vacations”

according to Franck Lehuédé, by favoring “cheaper” destinations like Spain.