What if a nuclear explosion took place in orbit? The disaster scenario studied by the American army

It was one of Donald Trump’s whims during his first term at the head of the United States. The American president wanted the return of the US Space Command, a military structure responsible for operations in space which had been merged with other authorities previously.

Active since 2019, this division of the army has started a new genre of simulation, reveals Ars Technica: a nuclear explosion in space. Concretely, it is “ wargames “, stagings of war scenarios, to which several private companies were invited.

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A scenario inspired by a true story?

The idea is to find out what would happen in the event of a nuclear explosion in space. Around sixty American companies, but also companies from New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada, therefore looked into the possible consequences of such a detonation, and to determine what should be done to avoid suffering too much.

It must be said that the threat is taken seriously by the United States. In 2024, during Joe Biden’s term in office, there were rumors of the possibility of a Russian nuclear weapon placed in space. A situation which would violate the space treaty, and which would constitute a serious threat, both to populations on the ground and to satellites in orbit.

At the time, the feared scenario was that Russia would use it to destroy numerous satellites in low Earth orbit, to largely disrupt enemy communications. Problem: such an operation would also affect the satellite links of Moscow, allied countries as well as neutral countries, which have nothing to do with a hypothetical conflict.

Since then, nothing like this has happened. However, what would happen if this happened anyway? Whether the explosion is premeditated or accidental, the American army still wants to anticipate the consequences that this would cause, in order to be ready.

Major damage

According to simulations, a nuclear detonation in low orbit could damage or destroy several thousand satellites, which includes communication and surveillance systems, as well as many military vehicles. Worse: the debris generated would make the orbit unusable for several years.

But the main danger is above all invisible: in the vacuum of space, there are no blasts or shock waves. Instead, an electromagnetic pulse that would instantly fry the electronics of the constellations in view. In addition, the detonation would create an artificial and permanent radiation belt around the Earth.

A radioactive hell that would eat away the surviving satellites in a few months, as the real American test had proven Starfish Prime in 1962.

The challenge of the exercises carried out with private companies is therefore to see how these actors could help the army in this situation. The hope is that it can then provide enough to launch new satellites, or even infrastructure to produce them more quickly, but also means to re-establish communication and space imaging.

Integrate the private sector with military needs

Behind this partnership, the army is testing a key concept. Be able to configure and launch a backup satellite in a very short time to replace losses. The Pentagon is also pushing manufacturers to toughen up civilian technologies like Starlink, which are today far too vulnerable. In short, shield them against radiation.

This type of relay between military power and private companies has already been put into practice. At the start of the war in Ukraine, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation was necessary to ensure communication on the battlefield. These types of events have pushed the Pentagon to reaffirm ties with these companies, particularly in the event a crisis arises.

After this wargame entitled Apollo Insight, the US Space Command intends to explore other scenarios of the same type around orbital maneuvers in times of crisis and defense missiles.

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