Putin’s visit to China: “Beijing has an objective interest in the war in Ukraine continuing”

Vladimir Putin begins a 48-hour visit to China this Tuesday. What to expect from this trip?

This visit had been planned for a long time. We should therefore not see this as an improvised reaction to Donald Trump’s recent visit to Beijing. The concomitance of the two events is above all symbolic. This trip will above all be an opportunity for Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to reaffirm the solidity of their relationship. There is absolutely no question for China of changing its policy towards Russia. Beijing believes it has obtained certain initial concessions from Donald Trump, but this does not call into question its strategic support for Moscow.

According to some reports, Xi Jinping mentioned Vladimir Putin in front of Donald Trump, suggesting that the Russian president might one day regret his Ukrainian adventure. But this essentially concerns the diplomatic register. Fundamentally, China is keen to preserve its ties with Russia, a deeply asymmetrical relationship in which Beijing clearly occupies the dominant position. This relationship provides it with considerable economic, energy and geopolitical advantages.

 

Is the relationship between the two countries in good shape despite this imbalance?

Yes, undoubtedly. On the economic front, Chinese imports of Russian hydrocarbons have increased significantly, in particular to compensate for disruptions in supplies from the Middle East.

On the geopolitical level, Beijing considers that Washington has not offered any serious resistance to certain requests from Xi Jinping. In this context, China has no reason to review its strategy towards Russia.

 

Is it an alliance, based on a convergence of views?

This is an alliance of circumstance, extremely useful to both parties, but which goes well beyond a simple partnership. We must recall a particularly revealing statement from Wang Yi, the true number two in Chinese diplomacy. Last July, he said that “China cannot afford a defeat for Russia in Ukraine.”

This sentence reflects a fundamental strategic reality: Beijing has an objective interest in the war continuing. The conflict ties up Western resources, diverts European and US attention from East Asia and offers China valuable time to strengthen its economy, military and international influence. The longer the war lasts, the more time China gains, and the stronger it becomes.

 

What is China’s concrete role in the war in Ukraine?

China supplies Russia with many dual-use components, including electronics and equipment that could be used for military purposes.

Without this support, whether technological, industrial or economic, Russia would have much more difficulty continuing its war effort. Chinese aid also allows the Russian economy to resist despite Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure.

 

Do Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping like each other personally?

The two leaders know each other extremely well. They met many times. The key moment of their rapprochement remains their meeting on February 4, 2022, a few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. On this occasion, they proclaimed “unlimited cooperation”.

This formula was not purely rhetorical. It meant that Beijing had undoubtedly been informed of Moscow’s intentions. Since the start of the conflict, China has never condemned the Russian invasion. Xi Jinping is convinced of the gradual decline of the United States. Its strategy is long-term. Faced with Donald Trump, who favors immediate agreements, Beijing is moving forward patiently and methodically consolidating its positions.

 

Why is Beijing slowing down the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, this gigantic oil pipeline supposed to connect the two countries?

China demands that Russia finance a large part of this project itself. And this desire perfectly illustrates the balance of power between the two countries. Beijing imposes its conditions, aware that Moscow needs this gas pipeline more than the reverse.

Furthermore, China has significant strategic hydrocarbon reserves, which allows it not to act urgently. However, Beijing has no interest in lasting destabilization of the Middle East. China needs stability to support its growth and exports. It could therefore encourage Iran to seek a diplomatic compromise.

 

Does the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis, which is much talked about as an inverted mirror of the West, really exist?

Yes, to a certain extent. These countries are very different, but they share a deep hostility towards the West. Each has a specific power of nuisance. Together, they contribute to weakening the international order dominated by Western democracies.

That said, China always acts according to its own interests. She has no real allies. If Vladimir Putin were to suffer a major defeat, Beijing could very quickly distance itself from him.