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War in the Middle East: oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases

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Between May 11 and 17, 55 ships crossed this strategic sea route located in the Gulf. The previous week, only 19 tankers had managed to transit the strait.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly last week, returning to levels consistent with the average recorded since the start of the Middle East conflict, after reaching a wartime low. A total of 55 ships carrying cargoes of raw materials crossed this strategic sea lane between May 11 and 17, according to data from maritime tracking company Kpler as of Monday morning.

This represents a sharp increase from the previous week, when only 19 ships passed through the strait – the lowest weekly figure since the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28. Iranian state television reported Friday that the Revolutionary Guards were allowing more ships to transit the strait, after reporting the day before that “more than 30 ships” avaient et authorises a sparrow

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Despite this increase, last week’s crossings remain generally in line with the averages observed in times of war. Since March 1, Kpler has recorded 663 cargo ships transiting the strait, an average of 55 per week. About half of the tankers crossing last week were carrying liquids. Among them were three supertankers, probably destined for China, Oman and Japan.

Kpler data also shows that 15 dry raw materials bulk carriers and 16 liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) LNG carriers crossed the strait last week. Only one liquefied natural gas LNG tanker carrying Qatari gas to Pakistan crossed on May 12. This brings the total number of LNG tanker crossings since the start of the war to eight.

Tolerance towards Chinese ships

In peacetime, the Strait of Hormuz transits about a fifth of the world’s shipments of oil and LNG, as well as other major raw materials, including fertilizers. Iran has repeatedly said that maritime traffic in this corridor does not “would not return to its pre-war level”.

On Monday, Tehran announced the creation of a new body responsible for supervising the strait and charging passage fees to ships, which Iran would have started doing at the start of the war. Iranian officials said Thursday that Chinese ships had been allowed to transit, after a slowdown seen the previous week.

According to Kpler, only three cargo ships linked to China by flag, ownership or cargo crossed the strait last week. Two Hong Kong-flagged ships also transited and were heading to Oman and the United Arab Emirates. However, the data does not necessarily give a complete picture, as ships do not always declare their final destination at the time of crossing.

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Since the start of the war, traffic in the strait has depended on nationality, with Iran having indicated on May 10 that countries respecting American sanctions against the Islamic Republic would encounter difficulties crossing. Since the start of the conflict, China and India have been among the most frequently reported non-Gulf destinations or departure points for cargo ships using the strait.

Other non-Gulf destinations mentioned in Kpler’s data include Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand and Malaysia, while relatively few ships report Western countries as their destination. The control exercised by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the central issues in the negotiations with the United States, which have still not been concluded.