Major climatic oscillations, such as El Niño or the Indian Ocean dipole, could play a much more important role than estimated in armed conflicts. This is what reveals a study carried out by researchers at Rice University (United States), published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Monday May 11. For several years, this team of eight scientists put together an unprecedented set of data, listing more than 500 beginnings of civil conflicts and wars occurring between 1950 and 2023, to understand whether certain climatic phenomena increased the risks of conflagration and violence.
“We wanted to understand if the risk of armed conflict is linked to these climatic variations and if the risk of local conflict is proportional to the influence of these variations on the local climate”explains Tyler Bagwell, one of the authors. With this approach, he and his colleagues mainly wanted to identify the regions of the world where meteorological upheavals make societies more fragile and more exposed to political or social tensions.
“Aggravating” factors
Their research focused on two climatic phenomena. The first is El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whose impacts are felt well beyond the South Pacific, and the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (DOI or IOD), less publicized but very influential around East Africa and Southeast Asia. “The extreme phases of ENSO and IOD are each associated with distinct, often opposing, local climate impacts”remarque Tyler Bagwell.
While some regions are becoming drier, others are receiving more rain. “By exploiting these differential impacts, we then established statistical correlations between the location and date of armed conflicts, the El Niño or La Niña phase of ENSO and the dry or wet impacts suffered by the societies concerned”continues the scientist.
The study shows in particular that violence is increasing in the regions hit by drought as El Niño passes. “The global risk of armed conflict is higher during El Niño than during La Niña”observe the scientists. Conversely, in regions where the “enfant terrible of the climate” brings rain, the authors did not find “no credible link” with an increase in conflicts.
This conclusion reinforces the idea that lack of water, agricultural losses and pressure on food resources can become factors “aggravating” in countries that are already economically or politically vulnerable.
A “threat multiplier”
Unlike ENSO, where only one phase (El Niño) appears associated with increased risk, the two phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole both appear associated with the emergence of conflicts, particularly in the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia. “It’s a very different pattern. The Indian Ocean dipole operates on shorter time scales and can evolve rapidly, creating abrupt climate variations that could destabilize already vulnerable regions.”summarizes Professor Sylvia Dee, who considers it as a “threat multiplier”.
Even if the authors point out that the climate does not directly cause wars, they believe that certain climatic models do indeed modify the probabilities of them occurring. Since El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole can be predicted several months in advance, the researchers hope that their study will be used to improve warning systems and humanitarian preparedness in the corners of the world concerned.
