Zurich (awp) – Employment outlook for Swiss companies is not deteriorating, despite the conflict in the Middle East and the rise in oil and gas prices that follows, according to the KOF Institute.
In the second quarter of 2026, the KOF employment indicator stands at 2.2 points, compared to 2.1 points in the first quarter of 2026, as indicated on Monday by the Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich. This barometer is based on the responses of around 4200 companies surveyed by the KOF in April.
The current value suggests a moderate evolution of the Swiss labor market in the current and next quarter, despite increased geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.
The employment outlook indicator for the next three months remains unchanged at 2.9 points. The share of companies expecting to increase their workforce in the coming months remains higher than those anticipating job cuts.
Improvement in wholesale trade and manufacturing
Despite the rise in energy prices and global tensions on supply chains, employment prospects in wholesale trade have significantly improved, from -12.1 to -3.7 points.
In manufacturing as well, the recovery continues: the sectoral indicator rose from -8.6 to -5.5 points compared to the previous quarter. However, both sectors remain in negative territory.
On the other hand, employment prospects have slightly darkened in hospitality, retail trade, and other services. The employment indicator in construction remains at a high level, at 10.7 points.
Revision downward
It should be noted that the value for the first quarter was revised downward, from 2.4 to 2.1 points, after additional information from companies surveyed in February and March. This could be related to the start of the war in Iran at the end of February.
However, the indicator remains slightly above its long-term average of 1.7 points and has recovered after a temporary dip into negative territory in the third quarter of 2025.
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