EU Summit in Cyprus: Ukraine, Ormuz, Energy, and Defense.

The leaders of the European Union have gathered in Cyprus for an informal summit that will kick off an internal process to establish a mutual assistance clause that could potentially replace Article 5 of NATO if the United States were to withdraw from the alliance, as President Donald Trump has threatened on multiple occasions.

The massive invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the war in the Middle East, the worsening energy crisis, and the EU’s long-term budget will also be on the agenda. However, no decisions will be made on Thursday or Friday due to the informal nature of the meeting.

Cyprus, currently holding the rotating EU Council presidency, will host the meeting.

One notable absence will be Viktor Orbán, the longest-serving member of the European Council, who suffered a significant defeat in the Hungarian elections earlier this month, ending his sixteen years at the helm of the government.

Orbán, set to step down next month, has decided not to participate in what would have been his final summit. His office cites the upcoming power transition as the reason for this decision.

Most European leaders are eager to turn the page on the Orbán era, characterized by constant disruptions, obstructions, and opposition. The Hungarian Prime Minister’s notorious use of veto power to block EU action has frustrated heads of state and government and sometimes paralyzed the Union at critical moments.

Two of his vetoes, concerning the 90 billion euro aid package to Ukraine and the twentieth round of sanctions against Russia, were lifted on Thursday following the resumption of Russian oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline dating back to the Soviet era.

Other issues remain active, especially regarding Ukraine’s accession process to the European Union.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who strongly opposed Orbán, is expected to attend the leaders’ dinner in Ayia Napa on Thursday evening to advocate for his country’s accession, seen as a security guarantee after the war.

While Orbán has been the main opponent of Ukraine’s accession, other countries are reluctant to make substantial progress on EU enlargement, a divisive issue among voters. An inventive proposal to speed up the Kyiv process through an “inverted” methodology was firmly rejected, with member states calling for more credible alternatives.

Ukraine at least hopes to unblock the thematic negotiation groups.

“There is no doubt that this process requires, as they say in Europe, unanimity, so that all voices in Europe are heard. I believe that in the near future, in the weeks and months, we will see how things unfold, how partners come together,” Zelensky stated on Wednesday.

“We hope and firmly believe that this issue will be resolved.”

The war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States have imposed reciprocal blockades, will also be on the agenda. Europeans have proposed creating a multinational force to escort commercial ships and clear the narrow waterway, but this project is in its early stages and may never materialize.

Disruptions in Hormuz have caused energy prices to soar across Europe, raising concerns of scarcity, poverty, and economic decline. Leaders will discuss a series of new measures unveiled by the European Commission earlier in the week, such as social schemes, tax cuts, investments in networks, and grants for clean technologies.

Building on the experience of the 2022 energy crisis, which significantly increased public debt levels, the Commission urges EU governments to provide targeted and temporary assistance that can be quickly withdrawn as prices begin to fall.

Similar Protection to NATO?

Cypriot President Nicos Christodoulidis aims to use the summit to initiate a thorough reflection on Article 42.7 of the EU treaties, which provides for mutual assistance in the event of an armed attack on a member state.

This article has been used only once: by France in 2015.

Cyprus is one of the few EU countries not in NATO and therefore cannot benefit from the alliance’s Article 5. The thorny issue arose at the start of the war against Iran when a Shahed drone struck a British military base on the island.

“We have Article 42.7, and we do not know what will happen if a member state triggers this article,” Christodoulidis told AP before the summit.

A senior EU official stated that the idea was for leaders to freely debate Article 42.7, its compatibility with NATO, and its practical dimension. EU treaties leave the door open to different types of assistance, be it economic, diplomatic, or military.

In Nicosia, leaders will also address the future shape of the EU’s long-term budget, with the Commission proposing €2 trillion over a seven-year period from 2028 to 2034. Most EU countries want to reduce the overall amount but disagree on which allocations to cut.

Brussels aims to reach an agreement on the new budget by the end of the year, as crucial elections will take place in 2027 in France, Italy, Spain, and Poland.