War in the Middle East: Will Iran make Donald Trump back down?

While a ceasefire seemed to hold between Israel and the United States, tension suddenly escalated this weekend around the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Donald Trump’s threats to “destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran” if Tehran rejects his offer, Iran refuses to return to the negotiation table and questions the seriousness of the United States in their willingness to continue the diplomatic path, citing “violations” of the current truce. In such a context and a few days before the ceasefire expires, a resumption of strikes seems inevitable.

Clement Therme recalls that before the Iranian revolution of 1979, the situation of Jews living in the country was “rather favorable.” The Islamic revolutionaries criticized the former regime for offering “too favorable treatment to religious minorities,” and one of their first decisions in power was to “close the office representing Israeli interests in Tehran and transform it into the embassy of Palestine.” This led to tension with the State of Israel, to the point where the Islamic Republic eventually asked Iranian Jews to choose between Iran and the State of Israel.

According to Clement Therme, the relationship between Iran and Israel took another significant turn in the early 2000s: “After September 11, 2001, the administration of George W. Bush included Iran in the axis of evil. The Islamic Republic responded to this rhetoric with talk of the ‘axis of resistance,’ turning this rivalry with Israel into a regional issue beyond just nuclear concerns. This period marks the question of auxiliaries, even though Hezbollah had been around since the 1980s. This regional rise of pro-Iranian and anti-Israeli forces represents an additional stage in the Iranian-Israeli confrontation.”

As Washington faces pressure, internal fractures within MAGA deepen regarding the issue of American intervention, especially with midterm elections approaching. Melissa Bell emphasizes that “time is running out for Washington,” and Americans “must end the war, but are caught in a trap of their own making.” Donald Trump’s objectives of achieving a “victory” seem challenging, as he faces adversaries with different negotiation styles.

Regarding the decision-making of Donald Trump, Melissa Bell explains that Israeli Prime Minister visited the US President in February, discussing the potential positive outcomes of an intervention. Trump’s decision, made without Congress’s approval and lacking support from a significant portion of the American population, will impact American views toward Israel.

Clement Therme adds that the US will need to navigate regional politics, as their allies have been affected by recent events. Trump’s alignment with Israel over Arab allies could have economic implications. The president faces constraints from Congress, neoconservative influences, Israel, and Arab allies in the region.