Trump says war in Iran should end soon, allies gather on Strait of Hormuz

President Donald Trump declared that an agreement to end the war in Iran could be reached soon, although the timeline remains uncertain, while US allies gathered on Friday to discuss reopening the vital maritime passageway of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump specified that a two-week ceasefire, ending next week, could be extended, although he does not believe it is necessary as Tehran is interested in an agreement.

“We will see what happens. But I think we are very close to reaching an agreement with Iran,” he told journalists, adding that if a deal were to be concluded and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he could travel there for the occasion.

In Islamabad, the location of last weekend’s talks, troops were visible on Friday along the roads leading to the capital, but the roads remained open and the government had not issued orders to close businesses, unlike what was done before the previous meeting.

The American-Israeli offensive against Iran began on February 28, causing thousands of casualties and destabilizing the Middle East. The conflict also led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits, risking causing the worst oil shock in history.

The International Monetary Fund revised downwards its global growth forecasts this week and warned that the global economy could tip into recession if the conflict continues.

France and Great Britain will preside over a meeting on Friday of about 40 countries aiming to signal to the US that some of their closest allies are ready to help restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but only once hostilities cease.

Trump had called on other countries to get involved in the war and had criticized NATO allies for their inaction.

According to a note sent to the invited nations, the purpose of the meeting is to reaffirm full diplomatic support for unimpeded navigation in this waterway and the need to respect international law.

Iran has largely closed the strait to ships other than its own, while Washington imposed a blockade this week on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.

Only a thin flow of ships has crossed the strait since the start of the war, compared to an average of over 130 per day before the conflict.

Optimism about an imminent agreement has fueled a strong rebound in stocks this week, with global markets maintaining near record highs on Friday, while benchmark oil prices remain below $100 per barrel.

A Pakistani source involved in the mediation between the US and Iran said on Friday that backdoor diplomacy is progressing and that a forthcoming meeting between the two parties could lead to the signing of a memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive agreement within 60 days.

“The two parties agree in principle. Technical details will come later,” the source said anonymously.

One of the main points of contention concerns Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, with the US proposing, during last weekend’s discussions, a 20-year suspension of any Iranian nuclear activity. Tehran has suggested a halt of three to five years, according to sources close to the proposals.

Iran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions, while Washington has insisted that all highly enriched uranium (HEU) be removed from Iran. Two Iranian sources indicated signs of compromise on the HEU stock, with Tehran considering exporting some out of the country.

Meanwhile, a ceasefire supported by the US, concluded between Israel and Lebanon to end the fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, seemed to be generally respected on Friday, despite some reports from the Lebanese army of Israeli violations.

The Pakistani mediator stated on Thursday that a parallel ceasefire in Lebanon would be an essential component of any discussion on an agreement to end the conflict in Iran.

The conflict rekindled in Lebanon on March 2 when Hezbollah fired upon northern Israel in support of Tehran, prompting an Israeli offensive that, according to authorities, resulted in 2,000 deaths.

The Israeli army made no immediate comment on the reported ceasefire violations on Friday.

Celebratory gunfire rang out in several neighborhoods of Beirut after midnight on Thursday to mark the beginning of the truce.

Displaced individuals by the war in Lebanon began returning home on Friday, checking if their homes were still standing, fearing the ceasefire may prove fragile.

In the heavily destroyed city of Nabatieh in the south, some returning residents confidently stated they would stay, while others declared there was nothing left to welcome them.

“It’s destruction and it’s unlivable. Unlivable. We are taking our belongings and leaving,” said Fadel Badreddine, who came with his wife and young son. “May God grant us relief and put an end to all this permanently.”