According to the updated forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on Tuesday, the global economy will suffer this year from the consequences of the war in the Middle East. The IMF now predicts a growth rate of 3.1%, down from the previously expected 3.3%. The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, explained that their projections are based on a relatively short conflict with temporary disruptions in the energy market that will disappear next year.
The United States is expected to be among the least economically affected countries by the conflict, with a growth rate of 2.3% in 2026, which is 0.1 point lower than the previous projection in January.
For the Eurozone, the IMF has lowered its growth forecast by 0.2 points to 1.1% for 2026 compared to their January estimates. All major economies in the Eurozone are affected to varying degrees: growth forecasts are reduced to 0.8% in Germany (-0.3 points), 0.5% in Italy (-0.2), and 2.1% in Spain (-0.2), while France is faring slightly better with a revision to 0.9%. Outside the European Union, the United Kingdom is more severely impacted with a decrease of 0.5 points to 0.8%.
