The author is a research associate at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, where their work focuses on studying and analyzing American politics.
As the 2024 election year began, many analysts saw the most imminent threat to Joe Biden’s reelection not in his cognitive state, the economic situation, or even Donald Trump, but rather in the division that was emerging within his electorate towards Israel.
The harsh response of the Netanyahu government to the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, sparked outrage mainly on university campuses and among young Democratic and left-leaning voters. They demanded, at the very least, a reassessment of American support for Israel.
Despite some diplomatic pressure on Netanyahu, there was no material change in the American administration’s stance. Washington, as Biden had known it throughout his half-century career, had never questioned the sacred relationship with Israel established after World War II.
Biden maintained this approach until he exited the race, and Kamala Harris took over, minimizing discussions on the Middle East until the end of the campaign. Other issues took center stage, and the new president diverted daily attention elsewhere.
However, two years later, during the peak of the US-Israel alliance in the war against Iran, the cracks in the relationship became more visible than ever. Not in the halls of power – there, Washington remained unchanged. But in the real country, yes.
Among Trump supporters, including some vocal ones, there is a growing discontent due to Trump’s failure to deliver on his promise to be an anti-war president and end the US role as the planet’s policeman, especially in the Middle East.
In the days leading up to the airstrikes against Iran, dissenting voices criticized the Trump administration for being too aligned with Israel. This shift in attitudes has been brewing for the past decade, evident even among Republican voters.
The divide between Republicans and Democrats on the US-Israel relationship is widening, with a majority of independents and a larger percentage of Democrats questioning or opposing the unconditional support for Israel.
The growing schism over Israel within both parties will no longer be easily swept under the rug as it was in 2024. Criticisms, whether from the left or the right, are often labeled as anti-Semitic by pro-Israel advocates but are starting to have less impact.
After the conflict with Iran began, US and Israeli officials perceived an opportune moment to act. This decision came on the heels of a historic Gallup poll that showed a shift in American public sentiment more favorable towards Palestinians than towards Israel for the first time.
In this changing landscape, how long can Washington avoid serious reassessments of its “special relationship” with Israel?
