The outcome of the referendum will also have consequences in the rest of the country, as the Republican governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, would consider redrawing his own state if the “yes” vote were to prevail in Virginia.
Virginia voters are set to vote on Tuesday on a new electoral map in favor of Democrats, seen as a response to the redistricting demanded by Donald Trump in several Republican states. With the proposed new territorial division, the hope on the left is to see the number of Democrats rise to 10 out of the 11 seats in the crucial midterm elections in November.
Republicans, who lost the governor’s seat a few months ago in this eastern coast state, are fighting hard to win the “no” vote in the referendum. The latest polls give a slight advantage to the “yes” vote, but a surprise is not out of the question, according to Professor Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. The stakes of the election (four seats in the House of Representatives) have led both camps to spend millions of dollars, calling in high-profile figures from their respective parties to plead their case.
Obama in reinforcement
“I live in Virginia and I can’t turn on my TV without seeing five Obama ads calling for a ‘yes’,” explains Larry Sabato. Barack Obama remains a very popular figure, to the point that the opposing camp also uses him to their advantage by airing an old video where the former Democratic president criticizes “gerrymandering.” This practice involves redrawing state districts to dilute the votes of one party, often resulting in bizarre geographical shapes.
Donald Trump resurrected this old electoral recipe in 2025, demanding a redistricting in Texas that would enable Republicans to win five seats in Congress. Ohio and North Carolina followed the example of Texas and also redraw their map to offer a handful of additional seats to the ruling party. In response to this offensive, the Democratic Party decided to retaliate by proposing its own redistricting in some states, mainly in California. In California, a new map was widely approved by referendum last November, aimed at canceling out Republican gains in Texas.
A victory for the “no” vote would be a setback
But in Virginia, Democratic officials face a much more uncertain outcome than in California. “There is a portion of Democrats who are fundamentally opposed to gerrymandering and say that you can’t cure evil with evil,” explains political scientist Larry Sabato. If enough of them decide to vote “no” or abstain, the new map may never see the light of day, especially as early voting shows strong participation from traditionally Republican rural areas of Virginia, the professor points out.
A victory for the “no” vote would be a setback for the new Democratic governor, Abigail Spanberger, who advocated for this redistricting. The outcome of the referendum will also have consequences across the country, as the Republican governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, would consider redrawing his own state if the “yes” vote were to prevail in Virginia.
