How Iran learned from the war in Ukraine to prepare for conflict with the United States

According to an investigation by the Financial Times, which analyzed over 300 articles published in Iranian military journals, Tehran meticulously studied the Ukrainian conflict to modernize its forces. Drones, cyber warfare, artificial intelligence: the publications reveal the priorities and weaknesses of a military apparatus that is now in decline.

Since February 28, Iran has been facing opponents with superior technology. Iranian commanders sought inspiration from Ukrainian tactics, particularly in drones, mobile warfare, and integrating artificial intelligence. The Financial Times reviewed over 300 articles from the past five years in a dozen Iranian defense publications linked to the main staff colleges of the Revolutionary Guards or regular armed forces. The authors included high-ranking commanders, ambitious officers, and academics evaluating strategic threats faced by Iran.

These texts show that Tehran drew lessons from Ukraine on drones, the resilience of arms production, and the use of technologies like 3D printing. They demonstrate efforts to modernize cyber warfare capabilities and integrate AI into decision-making and attack processes. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is a prominent theme. “The Russia-Ukraine war was one of the cases we examined closely,” confirmed Iranian commander Hossein Dadvand in a rare interview regarding updating training manuals.

The reviews also reveal internal concerns. Generals Kioumars Heydari and Abdolali Pourshasb, who each led the Iranian military, expressed alarm in 2023 about inadequate planning against “emerging threats”. They advocated recruiting specialists and acquiring advanced technologies like drones, lasers, and space platforms.

Aziz Nasirzadeh, a former air force chief turned defense minister, advocated for the purchase of Russian Su-35s to reconstitute a neglected fleet of fighter jets. He also recommended the use of suicide drones and integrating AI into targeting. The acquisition of Su-35s created tensions within the army branches.

Beyond strategy, some unexpected articles document the daily life of the Iranian military: failing military hospitals, ethnic and social discriminations in academies, suicide prevention among soldiers, and combating recruitment into “deviant sects”. “These reviews offer a window into the daily life of the Iranian military,” observed Michael Connell, a former US intelligence officer cited by the FT.

Farzin Nadimi, an expert at the Washington Institute, views the strategic analyses as often methodologically weak, rendering the conclusions “null”. However, even mediocre articles shed light on the mentality of officers, often influenced by an ideology that views Washington as weakened and the Middle East as a region to reshape.