The global economy will suffer this year from the consequences of the war in the Middle East, according to updated forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, with overall growth limited to 3.1%, down from the previously expected 3.3%. “Our base forecasts are based on a relatively short conflict with temporary energy market disruption that fades away next year,” explained the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, to AFP, specifying that “before the war, we were preparing to revise up our growth forecasts.”
The United States is expected to be among the least economically affected countries by the conflict they triggered on February 28. The institution forecasts a growth of 2.3% in 2026, 0.1 point lower than the previous projection in January.
For the Eurozone, the IMF has lowered its growth forecast by 0.2 points to 1.1% for 2026 compared to its January estimates. All major economies in the Eurozone are affected to varying degrees: the growth forecast is reduced to 0.8% in Germany (-0.3 points), 0.5% in Italy (-0.2), and 2.1% in Spain (-0.2), with France fairing slightly better with a revision of 0.1 point to 0.9%. Outside the European Union, the United Kingdom is more severely impacted (-0.5 points to 0.8%).
