Real estate: the rebound in the old sector stopped dead in its tracks by the war in Iran, Fnaim is alarmed

“Real estate investment requires confidence and requires visibility and serenity”, two elements undermined by the conflict in the Middle East.

After several years of deep crisis, the old real estate market had begun to recover in 2025 and is hit hard by the war in Iran, which is fueling the surge in energy prices and weighing on the purchasing power of households, alarmed Wednesday June 17. National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim).

After a “low point” in 2024 at 845,000 sales, the year 2025 ended with a rebound in the market with 952,000 transactions recorded thanks to

a stabilization of prices, a relaxation of real estate credit and a return of buyers.

But the outbreak of war in Iran on February 28 suddenly interrupted this dynamic. In March and April, the market recorded 17,000 fewer sales, leading Fnaim to lower its forecasts for 2026, with around 900,000 sales expected.

“L’impact a été immédiat

purchasing power is weakened and uncertainty in the current political context weighs on households. Real estate investment requires confidence and requires visibility and serenity,” reacted to AFP Loïc Cantin, president of Fnaim, who welcomes “with caution and attention” the announcement of a peace agreement on Iran.

Rates on the rise

The decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday to raise its deposit rate by a quarter of a point, to 2.25%, which is its main key rate, will also weigh on the cost of real estate credit, notes Fnaim, for which the production of credits was already marking time before.

The prices of old real estate, however, remain generally stable over a year, and are even declining if we take into account inflation. Prices of apartments increased slightly (+1.8% to 3,838 euros/m2), while those of houses fell by -1.6% to 2,357 euros/m2.

Depending on the city, developments vary greatly: Mulhouse increases by 11.4%, Rennes falls by 7.3%, while Paris continues its correction (-0.4%) while maintaining prices “among the highest in Europe”.

Beyond the economic slowdown,

the accession market is “closing”

warns Fnaim, for whom young people, the most modest households and the middle classes are seeing themselves “progressively ousted”. “We are witnessing an impoverishment of access to property,” underlines Loïc Cantin, noting that with “less than 50,000 euros of income per year, the possibilities of access to property are increasingly weak”.