It became a running gag. Every two days, or almost, Donald Trump emphatically trumpets that an agreement with Iran is about to be concluded. Sometimes the announcement takes on the appearance of an ultimatum, loaded with threats in capital letters. At best Tehran confirms progress, then it all starts again. According to a CNN count, the American president has already affirmed that an agreement was imminent on around forty occasions.
What if this time it was the right one? Tehran indicated this Saturday that the negotiations could succeed in “the coming days”, while excluding giving satisfaction to an American president visibly eager to brandish a signature on Sunday, his birthday. According to the head of Iranian diplomacy, Abbas Araghchi, the text discussed provides the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports as well as new management of the Strait of Hormuz. The draft agreement would also provide for a right to uranium enrichment as well as the rapid release of $24 billion in Iranian funds frozen abroad.
Reconciling divergent interests
“The United States and Israel are seeking alignment on this issue. This is one of the reasons why the American position appears so erratic. They must find a position that satisfies them, with a very important electoral stake for Trump to put an end to a war very unpopular in MAGA circles, but which also reassures the Israelis about their security prospects. For the Israelis, what is central is Iran’s nuclear power and ballistic capabilities,” analyzes Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkey and Middle East program at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
The Lebanese case also illustrates these divergences. The Jewish state wants to exclude it from negotiations to keep its hands free in Lebanon, where the Israeli army has launched an offensive against Hezbollah supported by Iran. A senior American official indicated Friday that Lebanon was included in the agreement under discussion, as Tehran has demanded since the start of negotiations.
Stratégies d’alliances
Far from easing tensions in the Middle East, the decision of Israel and the United States to attack Iran seems to have further exacerbated antagonisms. Not only did the mullahs’ regime not collapse, but it became even tougher.
“Many analysts consider that Iran, today, has succeeded in establishing a strategic barrier and strengthening its deterrence capacity. It has materialized an existential threat for the Gulf countries. We also saw that the famous proxies have not disappeared,” continues Dorothée Schmid.
Although it retains its harmful capabilities intact, Iran nevertheless emerges from the conflict very weakened economically, militarily and diplomatically.
The conflict has not called into question the alliance strategies of the Gulf monarchies either. Saudi Arabia has further accelerated its rapprochement with Turkey, to counterbalance the strategic partnership of the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The engine of a future rivalry between Ankara and Tel Aviv?
“The Turks have a lot of disputes with Israel, particularly in Syria, and the Israelis are becoming obsessed with the idea of a Turkish threat in addition to the Iranian threat. This is why they are arming the Greeks and the Cypriots by playing on the antagonism with Turkey,” explains Dorothée Schmid.
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