Iran facing the restructuring of its regional environment. Between regime survival and strategic isolation

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Iran retains significant asymmetric levers of action, but the war is accelerating the erosion of its regional capital, whether it be its networks of influence, its economic cooperation or the diplomatic progress obtained since the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia in 2023.

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Presented as a major strategic asset, the disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz recalls Iran’s central role in global energy security, but simultaneously exposes it to hostility from its main trading partners and the international community.

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By primarily targeting the United Arab Emirates, Tehran seeks to internationalize the cost of the conflict for Washington, but takes the risk of weakening a central trading partner and a major relay for its insertion into the world economy.

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The changing balance in the South Caucasus threatens Iran’s position as a strategic crossroads between the Gulf, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

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Ifri’s Turkey/Middle East program provides expertise on the evolution of political systems, societies and economies in the region. It focuses on the one hand on developments in Turkey and the Levant (Turkish and Iranian influences, risk of fragmentation of the states in the region, diplomatic reorganizations), and also in the Maghreb (insertion of the Maghreb into global circuits, political and economic relations with Europe and with sub-Saharan Africa…).

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Few countries were as profoundly affected by the October 7 attacks and the subsequent Gaza war as Germany. This is not just a political controversy. This reflects a deeper structural problem: German policy towards Israel has long been based on two guiding principles, a special historical responsibility towards Israel, inherited from the Holocaust, and a firm commitment to universalist norms, above all international law and human rights.

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The terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023 cost the lives of more than a thousand Israelis, irrevocably changing the international perception of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Australian government has expressed its deep shock and disgust at the Hamas attacks, while reaffirming its unwavering diplomatic and political support for Israel. But as the Israeli response became more oriented towards revenge and used as a pretext to realize the long-held ideological dream of a Greater Israel, Australia’s support became more discreet and conditional.2 This culminated in Australia’s membership in the Great Britain, France and Canada to officially recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025.

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The attack launched on Iran in February 2026 by Israel with the help of the United States constitutes the apogee of the confrontation between the two countries. Historian of international relations, Clément Therme analyzes fifty years of a conflict which, more than ever, has a global impact.