The flambée des tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz brutally reversed, in the spring of 2026, the disinflationary trajectory that had prevailed since the end of 2025. In a few days, the inflation forecasts of business leaders were revised upwards, under the effect of an energy shock perceived as violent but temporary, while major international institutions increased their price rise scenarios for the whole year.
Find the podcast of this article below:
Disclaimer :
The contents published on this site are provided for purposes informatives, éducatives et générales. They relate in particular to wealth management, real estate investment, finance, taxation and wealth organization. They do not in any way constitute personalized advicenor a legal, tax, financial or accounting consultation.
The information, analyses, opinions, simulations and examples presented are given for indicative and may change depending on regulations, market conditions and your personal situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Every investment involves risksin particular loss of capital, liquidity, market variations, exchange rates or tax and regulatory constraints.
The strategies mentioned (real estate investment, financial investments, asset structuring, tax optimization, international diversification, etc.) must be analyzed with regard to your profile, your objectives and your overall situation. They may require specific adjustments and appropriate support.
Before making any decision, it is recommended to consult qualified professionals (asset management advisor, lawyer, notary, chartered accountant or any other competent specialist). The publisher and the author decline all responsibility for decisions taken on the basis of the information published on this site.
A conflict in the Middle East that reverses the disinflationary scenario
The intensification of the conflict in Iran, triggered by frappes israélo-américaines followed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuzcaused a negative supply shock on a global scale. The disruption of this strategic maritime route and the damage to energy infrastructure caused the prices of raw materials and crude oil to jump, calling into question the phase of strong disinflation observed at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026.
The World Bank forecasts global growth limited to 2.5%, its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The International Monetary Fund has also revised its forecasts: for the euro zone, the growth is expected at 0.9% (compared to 1.1% previously) and l’inflation projetée à 2,8 %a direct reflection of soaring energy costs. On a planetary scale, the IMF anticipates a average inflation of 4.4%.
Business leaders’ expectations change with the closure of Hormuz
The brutality of the shock appears clearly in the data collected by the Banque de France during its monthly economic survey. Carried out from February 25 to March 4, 2026 with 1,500 leadersthis investigation was directly impacted by the outbreak of the conflict during the collection phase.
Before the crisis, business leaders predicted disinflation of 1.5% over one year. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, these forecasts jumped by 0.4 points, then by 0.7 points on average on March 4. The share of leaders anticipating inflation of 4% triples, from 5% to nearly 15%.
This revision marks a change of diet in the perception of price riskseven though, a few weeks earlier, companies were projecting themselves into an environment of stability, or even lasting moderation of inflation. The geopolitical shock wave therefore immediately contaminated short-term expectations.
On the other hand, expectations over a longer horizon – three to five years – were only marginally adjusted, 0,1 à 0,3 point. Companies consider the energy shock extremely violent, but above all transitory, and are only cautiously revising their vision of medium-term inflation. This distinction between short and long term is considered decisive by the monetary authorities, who seek to anchor expectations to avoid a lasting surge in prices.
An energy shock without an immediate price-wage spiral
In this context of soaring costs, a key point emerges from the work of the Banque de France: the Wage rise forecasts were not immediately revised by companies. The managers do not anticipate, at this stage, generalization of salary increases proportional to inflationwhich removes in the short term the risk of a price-wage spiral.
No generalized and excessive transmission of inflation to wages is observed. Companies are trying to contain the increase in their payroll to offset the surge in energy costs, while adjusting their sales prices cautiously, so as not to lose their customers.
Emmanuel Moulin, governor of the Bank of France
This strategy is already seen in French economic data. According to INSEE, annual inflation rose from 2.2% in April to 2.4% in May 2026after hitting a low of 0.3% in January. The harmonized consumer price index reached 2.8% over one year in May. The main source of this acceleration is the energy bill…: energy prices jumped 16.6% over one year, driven in particular by an 11.3% increase in gas in May. Underlying inflation, excluding energy and volatile products, also rose, from 1.2% to 1.5% between April and May, a sign that the shock is starting to spread to other segments, notably services.
The provision for French croissants is 0.7% by the IMF.
Central banks are tightening course to anchor expectations
Face à la remontée des anticipations d’inflation of businesses and households, the priority of central banks is to avoid lasting disanchoring. The European Central Bank thus surprised the markets by deciding, on June 11, to raise its three key rates by 25 basis points, a first since 2023. The main refinancing rate was raised to 2,25 %.
The ECB justifies this tightening by inflationary pressures resulting from the war in the Middle East and the rise in the price of a barrel. It forecasts average inflation of 3.0% in the euro zone in 2026 and revises expected growth to 0.8%.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve is faced with a similar dilemmabut in a tense political context. Annual inflation accelerated 4,2 % in May, driven by a spectacular 40.5% increase in fuel prices. The new president of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, installed at the end of May, must arbitrate between pressure from the White House, which is demanding rate cuts in the midst of an erosion of purchasing power in the run-up to the mid-term elections, and the need to preserve the anti-inflationary credibility of the institution. The major investment banks now expect key rates to be maintained until the end of the year.
In the West African Economic and Monetary Union, the BCEAO notes the transmission of the shock via fuel prices between March and May, but overall inflation remains contained thanks to a good agricultural campaign. The debate on anchoring expectations also concerns emerging and developing countries, affected by the surge in import costs.
A degraded business climate and frozen investments
The brutal deterioration of the inflationary environment is reflected in the morale of business leaders. There  Major consultation of entrepreneurs » carried out by the chambers of commerce and OpinionWay reveals, at the end of May 2026, a drop in 7 points of the optimism indicatorreduced to 55. This level is the lowest since the health crisis of 2020, and the drop is particularly marked among small businesses with low margins. In total, 56% of managers questioned believe that the general economic situation “was better yesterday”.
The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI for France fell to 44.9 in May, signaling a contraction in economic activity.
In this context, companies are adopting stratégies de prudence extrême. Productive investment projects are reportésparticularly in commercial real estate, due to the increase in credit costs linked to ECB policy. Leaders are primarily seeking to preserve their cash flow rather than financing risky developments.
Monetary authorities are warning of the growing fragmentation between resilient companies, capable of passing on rising prices, and highly indebted companies penalized by persistently high rates. This raises fears of “profitless prosperity”, where nominal turnover increases thanks to prices but margins shrink.
Sectors highly exposed to the cost of energy
The sectoral effects of the energy shock on anticipations d’inflation are also documented. A report from Bpifrance Le Lab, published in mid-June, shows that the rising energy prices particularly hits certain French sectors. Transport services, which are very dependent on fuels, agriculture, via the increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers correlated with gas, and electro-intensive manufacturing industries are among the most exposed.
Companies anticipate persistent cost increases, forcing them to adjust their prices more frequently, which reinforces inflationary inertia. States have limited budgetary margins to subsidize energy, unlike in 2022, which increases the importance of monetary policies and internal decisions of companies.
On the markets, the prospect of a framework agreement in Geneva providing for gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a drop in the price of Brent below 90 dollars on June 12, after peaks above 100-110 dollars in May. But forecasters remain cautious…: ITR Economics raised its forecast for the producer price index for 2026 from 3.4% to 2026 on June 1. 5,0 %arguing the rapid rise in industrial metals and oil, while analysts such as those at JP Morgan estimate that persistent logistical bottlenecks and rising technology costs could push global underlying inflation well beyond 3% if the disruptions in Hormuz continue.
Leaders seeking visibility and simplification
Beyond the figures, the surveys highlight the structural concerns leaders facing this new inflationary environment. A large majority of them demand a simplification administrative rapide and a reduction in regulatory constraints, which they consider incompatible with the need to react quickly to a cost shock of such magnitude.
Many entrepreneurs are calling for the generalization of “SME tests” on any new regulation, in order to assess its cost and applicability before implementation, to avoid increasing the costs of companies while their margins are compressed by energy and prospects growth rates are revised downwards.
In this context, the forecasts of business leaders faced with inflation in 2026 appear both higher and more uncertain, oscillating between the fear of a lasting shock on costs and the hope of a rapid decline in the event of geopolitical détente. For public decision-makers as well as for central banks, the challenge is now to stabilize these expectations without further stifling an economy already weakened by the slowdown in activity.
