- Brève introduction
- “The most violated ceasefire in history”: Washington and Tehran exchange attacks for the second night in a row
- A World Cup like no other: Azteca inaugurates in Mexico the first championship bringing together three countries, 48 teams and 104 matches
- Barcelona looks up: Leo XIV blesses the Tower of Jesus Christ of the Sagrada Família
- Fear of the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ continues to plague the technology sector
- Dismantling in two stages: UBS liquidates the Credit Suisse platform
- kyiv under fire: Russia continues its record air campaign
- Media rack
- Editorial commentary
Brève introduction
Rarely does a single day offer with such rawness the portrait of the era that I describe in these reports – that of “wars with variable temperature” and the contained systemic divide –:
As Barcelona and the world looked up at the cross that crowns the Tower of Jesus Christ, blessed by Leo The United States and Iran exchanged attacks for the second night in a row on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, and kyiv was once again counting its dead under Russian aerial hammering. Civilization and barbarism shared the headlines.
At the heart of the escalation in the Gulf, the paradox of decapitation continues to beat: it is not that the moderates were eliminated – there were none – but that the survivors, all ultraconservatives, individually lack ideological authority, rank hierarchy and the dominant personality necessary to impose their will on their peers and make concessions accepted. Khamenei – inexplicably described as “supreme” – could impose internal discipline in the image of its arbiter;
It is a paradox of governance, not of moderation, and it explains why the dictatorial and mafia oligarchy of Tehran is incapable of reaching the agreement that President Trump is demanding with Tomahawk blows.
“As Barcelona looked up at the Gaudà cross, the Gulf lit up again with missile fire: civilization and barbarism shared the headlines. HAS”
“The most violated ceasefire in history”: Washington and Tehran exchange attacks for the second night in a row
Facts
US Central Command (CENTCOM) declared shortly after midnight Tehran time that the second straight night of “self-defense” attacks on multiple targets in Iran was over, after the crash of a American Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the week triggered the most serious series of retaliations since the ceasefire concluded in April under the mediation of Pakistan.
Trump himself explained from the Situation Room (White House situation room), accompanied by Vice President Vance and envoys Witkoff and Kushner, that 49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired and that the bombings would resume if Tehran did not immediately sign a memorandum of understanding; he went so far as to describe the agreement in force as “the most violated in history.” The Revolutionary Guard claimed to have attacked 18 US military targets on bases in Kuwait and Bahrain – including the Fifth Fleet – and launched, for the second night in a row, twelve ballistic missiles against the Al-Azraq base, in Jordan. Explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, on the island of Kharg, in Shiraz and in several towns near Tehran; the price of oil has increased by almost three dollars and the UN Secretary General deplored that the ceasefire looks more and more like a “soft fire” than a real truce.
Implications
The war, which began at the end of February with massive joint air strikes by the United States and Israel, is entering its fourth month without diplomacy having found a solution, and the underlying reason is the one that this analyst has been emphasizing since the first day: the Iranian terrorist regime – a dictatorial and mafia oligarchy, in no case a “theocracy” – has no one capable of signing the negotiated capitulation imposed by military reality. The triumvirate formed by General Ahmed Vahidi, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohamed B. Zolghadr, secretary of the National Security Council and commander of the Al-Quds brigades, and Rezaei, acting military advisor to the Guide, neutralizes each other, while the reformist wing of Pezeshkian remains systematically blocked.
At the same time, the escalation is dragging our Gulf allies – Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia activating their defenses night after night – and putting the ultimate risk back on the table: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth in world oil. And all this without Washington having yet presented the slightest serious plan for the post-conflict, if the regime gives in or implodes: this is our always criticism of a transactional and erratic foreign policy, guided by intuition and words. thoughtless, which we hope to see brought back on the right path by the wisdom of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Perspectives et scénarios
Scenario A (35%): renewal of the ceasefire in the coming weeks, with the mediation of Pakistan and the Emirate of Qatar, and resumption of negotiations under the pressure of the naval blockade. Scenario B (40%): prolonged cycle of calibrated retaliation – wars of variable intensity – without formal termination of the armistice or final agreement, with oil being subject to a permanent risk premium. Scenario C (25%): total rupture, open air campaign and risk of implosion of a regime for which no one has prepared post-conflict.
A World Cup like no other: Azteca inaugurates in Mexico the first championship bringing together three countries, 48 teams and 104 matches
Facts
The 2026 World Cup begins today, June 11, with the Mexico-South Africa match at Azteca Stadium – renamed Mexico Stadium during the tournament – which becomes the first stadium in history to host matches from three World Cups (1970, 1986 and 2026) and three opening matches.
Renovated thanks to an investment of approximately 160 million euros and with a capacity of 87,500 spectators, the Azteca inaugurates an unprecedented championship: 48 teams, 104 matches and 16 cities spread between the United States, Mexico and Canada, with opening ceremonies staggered between Mexico, Los Angeles and Toronto, and a final scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The authorities in the Mexican capital have declared today a public holiday, and the opening show will include Shakira, J Balvin and Maná.
Implications
The fact that the first three-person World Cup is precisely co-organized by the three partners of a North America crossed by the trade and tariff tensions of the Trump era is not a sporting anecdote, but a geopolitical fact of the first order: the event will force Washington, Mexico and Ottawa to coordinate without precedent in matters of borders, immigration and security, and will offer the continent a platform of soft power (capacity for non-coercive influence) at the very moment when the world is fragmenting. The contrast with the day of war in the Gulf could not be more eloquent.
Perspectives et scénarios
We can expect a memorable tournament on a sporting level but tense on a logistical level, with frictions over immigration and visas as the main risk for the reputation of the American administration; we cannot exclude any attempt at political exploitation of the championship, nor that security – in full escalation with Iran and with global jihadism always on the lookout – becomes the deciding variable of the summer.
Barcelona looks up: Leo XIV blesses the Tower of Jesus Christ of the Sagrada Família
Facts
In a ceremony of beauty that is difficult to exaggerate – which today makes the front page of a large part of the international press – Pope Leo tallest Christian building in the world, as we celebrate the centenary of the death of Antoni GaudÃ, “the architect of God”.
The Holy Father first presided over a solemn mass of thanksgiving in front of 8,000 seated faithful – and thousands more behind the barriers – naturally alternating between Spanish and Catalan, prayed in front of GaudÃ’s tomb in the crypt and attended, in the company of the Kings, the President of the Government and the President of the Generalitat, the lighting of the cross and the show of lights and drones which drew the silhouette of the architect in the sky with his motto: “Primer l’amor, despres la técnica” (“First love, then the technique “). One hundred and forty-four years after the laying of the first stone, GaudÃ’s dream – a paradise of dead stones which welcomes the assembly of living stones – became a reality.
Implications
Beyond the emotion – and there was a lot of it – the event has a deep cultural and geopolitical significance: in a spiritually exhausted Europe, which has made relativism its standard and which seems to have renounced the roots which made it great, the city which prides itself on being the capital of secularism regained for a few hours the pride of its Christian heritage, and it did so under the gaze of the whole world. The apostolic visit of Leo
Perspectives et scénarios
It remains to build the bell towers of the facade of Glory and to complete the interiors and the access to the belvedere of the cross: the basilica will remain, like Christian life itself, in the words of the Sovereign Pontiff, “a work in progress”. Most relevant to this report is the demonstration effect: the soft power of faith, beauty and perseverance – one hundred and forty-four years for a tower – in the face of the short-termism of the mediocre political class of the 21st century.
Fear of the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ continues to plague the technology sector
Facts
The Economist devotes its economic analysis to the fear that continues to plague the software industry: the “SaaSpocalypse,” the fear that artificial intelligence agents will render large parts of traditional enterprise software useless. Panic broke out in February, when the launch of agents from the American company Anthropic caused the sector to lose nearly $285 billion in market capitalization in 48 hours and caused stocks such as SAP, Salesforce, ServiceNow and Workday to plunge; in January, the American software index recorded its worst monthly fall since 2008.
This week, Orlando Bravo – founder of Thoma Bravo, a venture capital giant with nearly $200 billion under management – proclaimed in Berlin that “the SaaSpocalypse is over” and that half of his portfolio companies’ new revenues are already ” agent revenues,” while contrary signals persist: spending limits on agentic tools at large enterprises and unresolved questions around governance, cybersecurity and returns on investment. In the first quarter of 2026, 81% of the approximately $330 billion raised globally in capital markets was devoted to the infrastructure of artificial intelligence models.
Implications
We are witnessing a historic redistribution of value within the digital ecosystem: from “subscriptions” to usage, proprietary data and the real exploitation of artificial intelligence, with a concentration of capital at the model level that reconfigures everything below. And, once again, Europe remains a spectator: not a single one of the platforms leading this battle – nor the capital which finances it – is European, which constitutes a new manifestation of the strategic passivity that I denounce in the field of defense and which, in the technological field, turns out to be just as suicidal.
Perspectives et scénarios
The most plausible scenario is neither the disappearance of software nor a return to the peaceful normal of before, but a selective destruction: accelerated merger between software and artificial intelligence agents, compression of multiples in the most exposed segments and bonuses for those who control their own data and workflow. The risk of a bubble at the infrastructure layer – with announced investments of several hundred billion – deserves monitoring as closely as the disruption itself.
Dismantling in two stages: UBS liquidates the Credit Suisse platform
Facts
Le Monde analyzes what it defines as the two-stage dismantling of Credit Suisse: the technical aspect and the institutional aspect. On the first front, UBS – which completed the migration of 1.2 million clients from the former entity to its systems in March – has entered the final phase of integration, with the complete dismantling of the Credit Suisse IT platform planned for the end of 2026 and the disappearance definitive of a brand born in 1856 under the name of Schweizerische Kreditanstalt.
On the second front, the Swiss Federal Council on April 22 forwarded to Parliament the amendment to the banking law known as “Lex UBS,” which significantly toughens the capital requirements of the country’s only remaining large systemic bank, amid an unprecedented standoff between Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and the director. general of UBS, Sergio Ermotti, who went so far as to threaten to relocate the headquarters abroad. In May, the US Federal Reserve ended its sanction measures against the former structures of Credit Suisse.
Implications
The physical and legal disappearance of Credit Suisse closes the most traumatic chapter in recent Swiss financial history, but opens another, perhaps even more decisive: that of a country which finds itself with a single systemic bank whose balance sheet far exceeds double the national gross domestic product, and which must choose between protecting the taxpayer – the reasonable position of Keller-Sutter – or preserve the competitiveness of its financial position at all costs. This precedent is of interest to the entire European banking sector: if Switzerland, the paradigm of stability, is forced to legislate against the implicit blackmail of relocation, what more will it have to do to the rest of the continent?
Perspectives et scénarios
The parliamentary battle will continue until 2027, with three possible outcomes: a substantial adoption of the “Lex UBS” with limited technical concessions – the most likely scenario – a significant weakening under pressure from the bank, or a frontal shock with a partial transfer of activities that neither party really wants but neither can rule out completely.
kyiv under fire: Russia continues its record air campaign
Facts
The Ukrainian capital is once again the priority target of the most intense Russian air campaign of the entire war: after the massive bombing at the beginning of the month – 73 missiles and 656 drones in a single night, leaving 22 dead and more than 130 injured, and the collapse of a nine-story building in the Podilski district – and after the use for the third time of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile at the end of May, various sources have reported in recent hours a new drone attack on kyiv having left at least three dead and caused damage to buildings in the administrative center of the city; As we go to press, these data are still provisional and awaiting independent verification, which is why we report them with the caution required by the rigor of this report.
Russia launched a record 8,150 long-range drones in May – 24% more than in April – of which Ukraine intercepted around 90%. At the same time, kyiv continues its in-depth campaign: this week, it hit the Samara refinery, the Grushevaya oil depot, near Novorossiysk, and several Russian anti-aircraft defense systems, while Germany has pledged to pay An additional 300 million euros – or around 50,000 long-range projectiles – to the Czech ammunition initiative.
Implications
Russian aggression against Ukraine – and we repeat it once again: no territorial conquest by force can be legitimized – enters a phase of double attrition where Moscow relies on air terror against the civilian population precisely because the ground balance has turned against her, with the first net monthly territorial result favorable to Ukraine since 2023 that this analyst describes. Ukraine’s Achilles heel is anti-missile defense: the American Patriot arsenals, partly depleted by the war in Iran, are not enough, and Zelenski is right when he demands that Europe equip itself with its own anti-ballistic defense. That our continent still depends, after more than four years of war, on the availability of foreign missiles to protect its capitals is an exact reflection of the European strategic passivity that these reports denounce day after day.
Perspectives et scénarios
Nothing suggests a de-escalation in the short term: Russia will intensify air terror to compensate for land attrition, Ukraine will broaden its in-depth campaign against refineries and logistics, and the decisive variable will be the speed of European rearmament – the Czech initiative, German commitments and the reconstruction of the anti-aircraft defense – in the face of Russian capacity to maintain record drone production.
Cross-sectional reading of major international reference titles over the last 24 hours:
The New York Times : Opens on the second night of cross attacks between the United States and Iran and on the impact of the escalation on the price of oil.
The Washington Post : Emphasizes decision-making from the Situation Room and the role of presidential emissaries in the Gulf crisis.
The Wall Street Journal : Focuses on the energy dimension and markets: Hormuz, crude oil risk premium and exposure of Gulf economies.
Financial Times : Associates the Iranian crisis with the revaluation of the software sector and the regulatory standoff between UBS and Bern.
The Times (Londres) : Escalation in the Gulf and debate on the British position in the face of a possible open campaign against Iran.
The Daily Telegraph : Critical reading of the fragility of the ceasefire and the absence of a post-conflict strategy.
The Guardian : Particular attention paid to civilian victims in Iran and Ukraine and to the humanitarian cost of the double escalation.
The World: Reference analysis on the two-stage dismantling of Credit Suisse under the leadership of UBS.
Le Figaro: Great file on the visit of Leo XIV and the cultural and spiritual dimension of this day in Barcelona.
Libération : Critical look at the escalation decided by Trump and the risks of a war without a road map.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: European defense: the new German commitment to the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine.
The world : German rearmament and debate on European anti-missile defense demanded by kyiv.
Corriere della Sera: In the headlines, the blessing of the tower of Jesus Christ and the centenary of GaudÃ.
L’Osservatore Romano: The day of the Sagrada Família as a central spiritual event of the pontificate of Leo XIV.
BBC : Continuous coverage of double news: escalation in the Gulf and the opening of the World Cup.
CNN : Live from the Gulf region and minute-by-minute monitoring of Iranian attacks and countermeasures.
Fox News : Exclusive interviews with President Trump from the Situation Room on the scale of the attacks.
CNBC : Orlando Bravo’s statement on the end of the “SaaSpocalypse” and the agency revenue debate.
Reuters : Verified timeline of the escalation between Washington and Tehran and its regional impact.
AFP : Photo of the day: the Sagrada Família illuminated after the papal blessing.
AP : The Azteca, the first stadium in history to have hosted three World Cup inaugurations.
Al-Jazeera: The opening of the World Cup and the Gulf War seen from Doha and the Arab world.
Asharq Al-Awsat: The Saudi position in the face of escalation and the protection of the Gulf’s energy supply routes.
The Jerusalem Post : The Israeli point of view on the Iranian front and the deterioration of the regime’s capabilities.
Haaretz : Internal debate in Israel over post-war strategy and campaign limits.
The Kyiv Independent : Ukrainian attacks in depth against Russian refineries and anti-aircraft defenses.
South China Morning Post : Beijing and the risk of Hormuz for Chinese energy supplies; call for restraint.
The Economist : Double analysis of the week: “a World Cup like no other” and the persistent fear of the “SaaSpocalypse”.
There are days that are worth a whole treatise on geopolitics, and today is one of them: the world that saw GaudÃ’s cross light up above Barcelona — after a mass of beauty that for a few hours reconciled the city with its own soul — is the same world that saw forty-nine Tomahawks split the Gulf sky and another night of drones sowing death in kyiv. This is neither a coincidence nor a rhetorical paradox: it is the exact portrait of an era where civilization – the patient faith which takes one hundred and forty-four years to erect a tower, the sport which brings together forty-eight nations around the same table – coexists with a barbarism which does not even pretend to hide itself.
In the Gulf, the root of the problem has not changed: the dictatorial and mafia oligarchy of Tehran – ruthless, bloodthirsty and cosmically corrupt – cannot sign peace because the paradox of beheading has left it without anyone with the authority to sign it, and Washington cannot win completely a war for which he did not prepare after the war. We support, we have always said, firmness in the face of the Iranian terrorist state and its tentacles – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the pro-Iranian terrorist militias of Iraq – but firmness without a plan is not a strategy: it is Russian roulette. We hope that the wisdom of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the professionals around the president will ultimately prevail over the diplomacy of exuberance, because the true successes of this administration — from Gaza to the Caucasus — have occurred precisely when prudence has guided the hand.
What about Europe, meanwhile? Europe is navel-gazing, inaugurating world championships by proxy and contemplating how its capitals depend on other people’s missiles to protect themselves from Russian barbarity. The lesson of GaudÃ, which the Holy Father recalled in Barcelona, also applies to politics: “First love, then technique”; first the principles and vision of a cathedral – knowing what we want to defend and why – then the instruments. The mediocre and myopic political class of the 21st century has reversed the order: everything is technical, tactical and short-term, and that is why the towers it erects are made of paper. If today teaches us anything, it is that the works that endure – a basilica, a democracy such as that which the Spanish Transition built under the leadership of King Juan Carlos I, an international order based on rules – require precisely that which does the most default: patience, courage and love for what we are building.
