A new survey carried out for i24NEWS by the Direct Polls institute reveals important movements within the Israeli political landscape. If Likud remains largely in the lead, former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot continues to gain ground, while Naftali Bennett records a notable decline.
According to this survey, if elections were held today, Likud would obtain 30 seats in the Knesset. Eisenkot’s party, Yashar!, would advance to 17 seats, gaining an additional mandate and consolidating its place as the country’s second political force. The alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid would fall to 12 seats, two fewer than in the previous poll.i24NEWS.
The Democrats would gain one seat and reach 11 terms. Shas would remain stable with 9 seats, as would Unified Torah Judaism with 8. Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party would advance to 9 seats, while Israel Beiteinou would decline to 8. A unified Arab list bringing together Balad, Hadash and Ta’al would obtain 7 seats. Betsalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party would fall to 4 seats.
Despite these developments, no side would manage to achieve a majority. The coalition bloc and the opposition bloc would find themselves perfectly tied with 60 seats each. Several parties, including Blue and White, the Reserves Party and the Economic Party, would not cross the electoral threshold.
The poll also tested the hypothesis of a common list bringing together Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel and Dedi Simhi. In this scenario, Likud would remain in the lead with 28 seats, while Eisenkot’s party would decline to 16 and Bennett’s to 11. The new formation led by Gantz, Hendel and Simhi would enter the Knesset with 5 seats.
This configuration would modify the balance between the blocs: the coalition would reach 58 seats, the opposition 57, while the five deputies from the Gantz-Hendel-Simhi list would hold the key to a future majority.
The survey was carried out on June 11, 2026 among a representative sample of 554 adult Israelis. The margin of error is estimated at ±4.1%.
