The latest Global Economic Prospects report from the World Bank paints a portrait of a global economy entering a new phase of uncertainty. After growth of 2.9% in 2025, global activity is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026, before gradually recovering to 2.8% on average over the period 2027-2028.
The cause of this deterioration is the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused significant disruption in global energy markets. The World Bank anticipates an increase of 22% in all raw materials in 2026 and above all an increase of 36% in the price of oil compared to 2025.
This inflationary surge particularly weighs on energy-importing economies, of which Morocco is a part. For these countries, the increase in energy costs acts as an external tax which reduces purchasing power, increases financing needs and deteriorates current balances.
The consequences of the shock are particularly visible in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MNA) region. After growth estimated at 4% in 2025, the region should only grow by 1.6% in 2026, before rebounding to 5% in 2027.
In this difficult regional context, Morocco’s situation stands out for the presence of a compensation mechanism that few economies in the region possess.
Read also: World Bank: how Morocco is resisting regional turbulence
The World Bank explicitly emphasizes that the increase in fertilizer prices should support Morocco’s export revenues and help offset the negative impact of the increase in import prices.
This observation is far from trivial. It reflects the profound evolution of the Moroccan economic model over the last decade. The Kingdom is no longer just an exporter of raw phosphate. It has gradually established itself as a major player in the global fertilizer industry, a segment with higher added value and more connected to food safety issues.
In other words, while the rise in oil constitutes a negative shock for Morocco, the surge in fertilizers acts as an economic shock absorber.
Moroccan growth supported by several drivers
However, this resilience is not based solely on phosphate. The elements of the report devoted to Morocco also highlight several sectors which continue to support national activity.
The first naturally remains the phosphates and fertilizers sector, whose contribution to the trade balance is becoming increasingly important in a context of volatility of raw materials.
The second driver lies in industrial exports more broadly, which have benefited for several years from the progressive diversification of the Moroccan productive apparatus and its integration into international value chains.
Tourism is also an important supporting factor. Even if the World Bank emphasizes that some economies in the region could suffer disruptions in this area due to geopolitical tensions, Morocco continues to have a relatively favorable positioning thanks to its institutional stability and its growing attractiveness.
Read also: Growth 2026: why do the forecasts for Morocco vary from 4.2% to 5.6%? Explanations from economist Ahmed Azirar
Thus, investments made in infrastructure, renewable energies and industrial capacities are gradually strengthening the resistance of the Moroccan economy to external shocks.
However, the World Bank report calls for avoiding any excess optimism. Morocco remains a net importer of hydrocarbons and remains exposed to the volatility of global energy markets.
The institution underlines that the rise in import prices as well as a potential slowdown in external transfers could contribute to the widening of the current account deficit in 2026.
This reality reminds us that the performance of phosphate exports cannot constitute a permanent solution. On the contrary, it underlines the strategic importance of policies committed to the development of renewable energies, energy efficiency and infrastructure intended to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
