The 154th edition of the Grant Thornton Barometer – OpinionWay – Challenges, published on March 19, reveals a clear shift in the mood of Intermediate-Sized Company (ETI) executives. While 2026 was expected to be a year of stabilization, the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February acted as a real chill.
As spring 2026 sets in, the executives of Intermediate-Sized Companies (ETIs) are shifting towards a marked caution. While morale still holds within the organizations, pessimism is gaining ground in the face of a global economy perceived as increasingly volatile. A look at an entrepreneurial France on the defensive.
A Declining Morale, Impacted by Geopolitics
In March, the confidence of executives in their own companies stands at 71%, showing a 5-point decrease from the previous month. However, this average hides a darker reality: for executives surveyed after the events in Iran in late February, this indicator drops to 66%. This level of distrust has not been seen since March 2022, during the invasion of Ukraine.
Not all sectors are equally affected. Services show a significant resilience with 82% confidence, while the industry (67%) and commerce (69%) sectors are more severely impacted by the volatility of energy costs and threats to supply chains.
Structural Pessimism about the French Economy
Concern is even greater when moving beyond the company’s perimeter. Confidence in the French economy remains at an alarming level of 24%. Apart from the economic situation, executives point to a heavy political climate, especially during the municipal elections, and a chronic lack of visibility on the country’s future economic directions.
The Digital, a Crisis Shield
In this context of a “besieged citadel,” investment strategies are tightening. However, digital and digital transformation (AI, cybersecurity) remain the sole top priority for 47% of ETI executives.
Conversely, there is a disengagement or a pause in other strategic areas. Only 21% of ETIs plan to increase their R&D budgets (-5 points), with a notable rise in companies now considering themselves “not concerned” with this lever.
Likewise, development intentions internationally are down by 25% (-5 points), hindered by global trade tensions. Finally, environmental transition (CSR) also sees a slight decline to 32% (-3 points).
Employment and External Growth in “Pause” Mode
On the social front, dynamism is fading. While 75% of executives plan to maintain their workforce, only 16% of ETIs intend to recruit, with 9% planning to downsize. The net salaried employment balance, though positive (+7 points), reflects more of a cautious management approach than a conquest phase.
Finally, external growth remains an option for 26% of companies, but only 10% of them consider the use of acquisition or merger to be “highly likely” in the near future.
French ETIs seem to have chosen their side: that of consolidating their technological achievements while waiting for better days on the international stage.
By Samorya Wilson
