War in Ukraine: after Volodymyr Zelensky’s open letter, what possible response from Vladimir Putin?

An outstretched hand? Volodymyr Zelensky wrote to Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian president made public, Thursday, June 4, an open letter to his Russian counterpart, in which he proposed a face-to-face meeting. The Kremlin responded the same thing as for months: Volodymyr Zelensky can come to Moscow. This is in reality a way of refusing this meeting since Vladimir Putin knows well that this solution is unacceptable for the Ukrainian president, just as it is very unlikely that the Russian president will go to kyiv.

This sequence shows that Russia’s position has not evolved in any way, at least in appearance. Vladimir Putin spoke at length to international press agencies on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg economic forum shortly before his Ukrainian counterpart spoke, and he appeared inflexible. According to him, there is no need for a ceasefire to begin negotiations between the two countries. He also referred to his meeting in Anchorage with Donald Trump, during which he claimed that an agreement had been reached, without the text having ever been made public. According to Vladimir Putin, this agreement stipulates that to obtain peace, Ukraine must cede the entire Donbass to Moscow. Finally, the Russian president questioned the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky to sign any agreement, and excluded the participation of Europeans in the discussions.

In his letter, Volodymyr Zelensky dares to use a fairly provocative tone towards Vladimir Putin, betting on the Russian population abandoning the head of the Kremlin. “You will not have enough money or political strength to continue to buy the loyalty of Russians as you have done for 26 years”writes the Ukrainian leader. The letter ends with this sentence: “If you don’t come to the realization that it’s time to end this war, then it’s to ensure your own existence that you will end up fighting.”

Volodymyr Zelesnky adopts the same defiant attitude as during the May 9 commemorations, when Ukrainian drones posed a threat above the Red Square parade. The Ukrainian president then issued a decree to authorize the parade, thus affirming his position of strength. The head of state continues to taunt his Russian counterpart because his army is in a positive sequence. Vladimir Putin himself was forced to recognize this, conceding that Moscow is currently encountering an air defense problem. However, the Ukrainian president is coming forward a little regarding the state of mind of the Russian people, who according to him are supposed to be losing confidence in their leader. There is no signal indicating this about-face in public opinion in Moscow.

The Russian president is taking part in the Saint Petersburg forum on Friday to talk about the economy. This speech on the Russian economy is a must for Vladimir Putin. This year, he will deliver it in a complex context, since Russia’s economy is at a standstill and, according to specialists, we are witnessing a slow and inevitable deterioration of indicators. We should not expect any resounding declarations from Vladimir Putin, nor even the beginnings of questioning.

On Thursday, he dodged all questions about his declining popularity and the country’s economic difficulties. He was content to assert that the real wages of Russians are increasing, a message passed on to his population. He also explained that if the Russian economy is slowing, it is because it was at risk of overheating before. According to him, this cooling is in some way a voluntary measure. It remains to be seen whether Vladimir Putin will respond to Volodymyr Zelensky on stage at the Saint Petersburg Exhibition Center. Given the context, it is very likely that there is no substantial statement, or even that one provocation responds to another provocation.