The National Assembly adopted at first reading the bill updating the military programming law (LPM). This law establishes the framework for expenditure planned by the State for its armed forces for six years, from 2024 to 2030.
In its first version, voted on in 2023, it planned to grant 400 billion euros to the Armed Forces over six years, and to reach 67.4 billion annual budget in 2030. The update desired by the government proposes to increase credits by 36 billion euros over the period, in order to reach an annual budget of 76.3 billion euros in 2030.
If the update is actually passed, the Armed Forces budget will have been multiplied by two in ten years. A colossal effort. However, several elements tend to put this growth into perspective.
First, if we express the budget as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the trajectory is less impressive. In 2019, defense spending represented 1.82% of GDP. They should reach 2.05% in 2025 according to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and 2.5% in 2030 after updating the LPM. This remains below France’s commitments expressed at the Hague summit to devote at least 3.5% of GDP to defense.
The growth of the budget does not translate into an overall increase in the volume of the Armies. The number of equipment and soldiers is rather decreasing, as noted by Stéphane Audrand and Elie Tenenbaum, researchers at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The 2015 army model (developed in 1996) for example provided for 136,000 personnel within the Army and 300 Rafales. There should only be 130,000 and 187 Rafale and Mirage aircraft respectively by 2030.
Insincérité du précédent budget
So what will these new credits be used for? On paper, they should make it possible to acquire additional equipment, including drones, ground-to-air defenses or anti-drone warfare (14 billion euros), and munitions (8.5). At the same time, the envelope must finance the new national service (2.3 billion), external operations (2.3 billion) and increases in personnel, operating expenses and inflation (7.8 billion).
But many parliamentarians believe that the LPM budget decided in 2023 was disingenuous because it was underfunded compared to the objectives. “Certain equipment and programs were announced without the corresponding credits,” thus criticizes Senator LR Cédric Perrin, president of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces, who cites for example the new generation aircraft carrier.
This insincerity has increased the outstanding amounts to be paid – i.e. future payments caused by commitments already made – which would reach 117 billion euros at the end of 2025 according to the Senate Finance Committee.
Among these outstanding payments, charge deferrals are particularly scrutinized. They correspond to the postponement to the following year of a payment which was due upon delivery of equipment due to lack of sufficient credit. Senator Dominique de Legge (LR) estimates them at around 10 billion per year from 2028.
Opacité
Therefore, will the planned extension really make it possible to free up room for maneuver or only to absorb poorly anticipated costs? “Both, but we don’t know how the 36Â billions will be distributed among themselves, regrets Sébastien Saint-Pasteur, socialist deputy, member of the defense commission. Our requests for more information and clarity have been refused.” The socialist elected officials nevertheless voted for the text at first reading, as did the Macronists, the right and the National Rally. The Ecologists and rebellious France, however, were opposed to it.
“The update of the LPM makes the Armed Forces budget more sincere but not really more manageable. There are many rigidities, with new spending patterns. Overall, we can say that this text is a consolidation of the existing one.” analyzes Sébastien Saint-Pasteur.
The senatorial right, for its part, proposes to go further with an extension of 50 billion euros which would therefore bring the weight of the LPM to 450 billion euros. Their desire is in particular to increase acquisitions of certain equipment, such as frigates and Rafales.
Rethinking defense
“Additional effort is needed in terms of defense, we agree, répond le député Sébastien Saint-Pasteur. But we must be able to finance it, and the Senate does not say how, which poses a problem. We must not harm the army-nation bond and national cohesion by giving the impression that we are increasing the military budget by cutting social or health budgets,” he defends. Socialist senators opposed the 450 billion extra proposed by the senatorial right.
One year before the presidential election, the time has not come to overhaul the army model. But the next executive will not be able to ignore this subject
One of the points which irritates the left is also found in article 21, which proposes to create a new state of national alert, a form of state of emergency light which would allow freedom from certain local and regulatory standards for two months, without consulting Parliament. The League for Human Rights (LDH) and nine other organizations strongly criticized the provision, which could lead to “very serious setbacks to public freedoms, social, patrimonial or environmental setbacks.”
More generally, researchers Stéphane Audrand and Elie Tenenbaum believe that defense planning still remains stuck in a format designed in the 1990s. One year before the presidential election, the time has not really come to overhaul the army model. But according to them, the next executive will not be able to ignore this subject.
