War in Iran: contradictory declarations and a dragging conflict

For 24 hours, there has been a barrage of declarations which do not all say the same thing about a possible end to the conflict between Iran and the United States. So much so that upon arrival, it is difficult to know if we are getting closer or on the contrary if we are moving away. The worrying statements came from Iran yesterday. Tehran has accused the United States of violating the ceasefire. Indeed, since this weekend, we have seen American strikes followed by Iranian retaliations.

But Tehran also increased the pressure a notch by explaining that it was suspending negotiations because of the situation in Lebanon with the Israeli attacks launched in the south of the country and in particular the capture of the famous Beaufort fortress.

Finally, to support its speech, Iran explained that it wanted to open other fronts, without specifying which ones, but we can think of new threats to oil or the activation of the Houthis in Yemen who are relatively calm for the moment.

Iranian threats on one side but reassuring speeches from Donald Trump on the other. As he often does, the American president gave his version of the facts on his social network, ensuring that discussions continue between the two countries “at a rapid pace.”

He also mentioned Lebanon, again with a reassuring message: Donald Trump specified that Hezbollah and Israel had promised to calm things down, which is not being verified on the ground for the moment. He finally spoke of an interview with the Israeli Prime Minister which he described as productive since Benjamin Netanyahu would have committed not to deploy troops in South Beirut.

In short, two interventions, two atmospheres. Worrying, on the Iranian side, reassuring, on the American side.

So how can we interpret this cacophony? The feeling is that the negotiations continue, otherwise the war would have resumed. However, for the moment, there are violations of the ceasefire but no resumption of hostilities.

We often talk about Iranian proxies: the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas… But the Americans also have their proxies with the Israelis who strike Lebanon. There is therefore a sort of fool’s game in making people believe that things are separate when they are linked. Especially since it’s difficult to comment halfway because at the moment everyone lies regularly. The Americans lie, the Iranians lie, with the impression that one side is waiting for the other to crack first.

Not to mention that we don’t really know what the two parties are discussing. We suspect what is on the negotiating table, with Iranian assets, UN sanctions, the nuclear issue, Lebanon, freedom of movement in the Strait of Hormuz… But it is impossible to say if the discussion is global or if it is done in stages. What is certain is that both camps are suffering from the crisis and that the whole world is suffering the consequences.