“Hybrid attacks have already been recorded in the past, but this increase in power is something new“, comments the researcher from the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco), Céline Bayou. “And behind these attacks, it is the Russian discourse which is gaining in aggression. Moscow’s first reaction was to accuse the Baltic states of opening their airspace to Ukrainian drones and therefore of being co-belligerents.. The Latvian authorities may have categorically refuted these allegations, but nothing helps. The Kremlin controls the narrative, intended to justify possible Russian aggression and to fuel a climate of fear.
In Russia, “security is achieved by force, Europe has deluded itself”
Tension maximale
“We feel a certain tension”, testifies Armands Astukević, researcher at the Center for East European Policy Studies in Riga, Latvia. “Almost daily drone incursions and the alerts that accompany them generate a lot of anxiety. There is little doubt that in the event of a confrontation between Russia and NATO, the Baltic countries and Finland are in an ideal geographical area to initiate a confrontation, and people are aware of it“.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are to date the only three former Soviet republics to have joined the European Union and NATO. The first two share 800 km of borders with Russia. The third is wedged between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, Belarus and the Suwalki corridor on its entire southern border. And the narrowness of the territories of the Baltic countries seriously complicates their defense in the event of a conventional attack. In mid-August, the former Lithuanian Prime Minister and current European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, therefore ordered Vilnius to consolidate the level of preparation of the population so that Lithuania “be ready to defend against hundreds of thousands of drones“.
On Tuesday, the Latvian General Staff announced the development of an anti-drone combat system, and the deployment from here “a few days” of “modules d’interception”including machine gun turrets. “There are massive investments in military tools“, constate Céline Bayou. “The Balts are among the NATO members who have gone furthest in meeting Trump’s demands. They will practically reach 5 % of GDP in military investments by the end of the year. They have a very active policy of strengthening borders, the objective of which is total security with fences, video surveillance systems, parking areas for forces or equipment,… And on a human level, civil society is very involved: they provide training, create defense leagues on a voluntary basis, we speak of total defense. But like everything else, it all takes time“.
A new Donbass in Estonia? “15 to 20% of the Russian-speaking population is pro-Putin”
Nearly 2 million men and women
As doctoral student Romain Sidos writes in the specialist journal “Regards vers l’Est”, “The Estonian Defense League formed its own paramilitary drone unit in 2025, called Kullisilm (Hawk’s Eye). At the same time, the Estonian government has committed to setting up a school drone training program by mid-2026. Since April 2024, Latvia has implemented a national defense training program for high school students. […] Et Lithuania plans to train 22,000 Lithuanians in the construction and piloting of drones by 2028, including 7,000 children under 12“The three countries are united today.”able to field only a slim complement of 40,000 active military personnel“, more “resorting to civil mobilization would allow them to reach a total of 1.7 million men and women available for military service, or a little more than a quarter of the total population, mobilizable for the war effort.
An EU country is sounding the alarm: Russia has significantly increased its capabilities in a strategic area, enough to threaten Europe?
All three can also count on a significant NATO presence on their territory. “It has always been clear to us that the United States is a major partner“, concède Armands AstukeviÄ s. “But from the moment their interests lie elsewhere, it is up to Europe to take more responsibilities“In addition to an air presence, the Atlantic Alliance has strengthened its permanent ground presence from 2022.”There are deployments of NATO troops and equipment on a constant and rotational basis“, précise Céline Bayou. “This presence sends an important message to the population as well as to Russia. It is a life insurance, a form of guarantee that if Russia were to cross the red line, Article 5 – which provides for common defense in the event of an attack by one of the NATO members – will indeed be activated. Without this presence, things would be less secure“.
The Balts are not the Ukrainians
What is the current probability that this red line will actually be crossed by Moscow? “Russia is not in a military position to confront the Baltic States and NATO as long as it is focused on the Ukrainian front“, estimates Armands AstukeviÄ s. “And I don’t see how they could launch an assertive air attack without facing a potentially lethal response from NATO for the regime. Nothing is impossible, but it’s highly unlikely“.
“The Kremlin is currently obsessed with l’Ukraine“, abonde Céline Bayou. And the relationship is not at all the same with the Baltic countries. There is certainly some Russian resentment towards the trajectory of these three countries, which makes Vladimir Putin potentially dangerous, but the Balts cannot be considered a “brother people”. For the moment, Baltic leaders are reassuring themselves by noting that the levels of Russian deployments on their borders have fallen enormously since 2022. But Moscow will in any case leave doubt to create stress and accentuate its hybrid war“.
