Iran fires ballistic missile at base in Kuwait

An Iranian ballistic strike hit Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait in the past twenty-four hours, lightly injuring several American nationals and seriously damaging two MQ-9 Reaper attack drones, according to a source with direct knowledge of the attack cited by Bloomberg ¹.

• According to the anonymous source, the Kuwaiti anti-aircraft defense intercepted the short-range Fateh-110 missile, capable of carrying a payload of 500 kilograms.
• However, free-falling debris reached the base: at least five people – contractors and active military personnel – were slightly injured.
• An MQ-9 Reaper combat drone was reportedly completely destroyed, a second severely damaged. Each device of this type costs around $30 million.

Since the war broke out on February 28, Tehran has fired more than 1,850 ballistic missiles at regional targets.

• The latest report from the Department of Defense for Operation Epic Fury shows 14 Americans dead and 409 injured.
• The conflict also depleted a significant portion of American stocks of precision munitions (JASSM-ER, Tomahawk, as well as the THAAD, PAC-3 and SM-3 Block IIA interceptors).

The strike comes as Trump declared yesterday, Friday, May 29, on Truth Social “to be ready to decide” on the preliminary agreement with Tehran.

• A meeting of approximately two hours in the Situation Room, however, concluded without announcement according to an anonymous source.².
• The draft agreement, as revealed exclusively by Barak Ravid for Axioswould be based on a 60-day memorandum of understanding³. It provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, mine clearance by Iran within thirty days, the gradual lifting of the American naval blockade and certain exemptions from sanctions allowing Tehran to freely sell its oil. In return, Iran would undertake never again to pursue its military nuclear program and to begin negotiations on the disposal of its stock of highly enriched uranium. The text would also include the end of the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a point criticized by Benjamin Netanyahu during a telephone exchange with the American president.
• The Iranian Fars agency, close to the Revolutionary Guards, immediately contested several elements presented by Trump, affirming that Tehran would reopen the strait “according to arrangements that it will determine itself” and would demand a payment immediate release of 12 billion dollars in frozen assets, a version that American officials deny.

To understand why the strike on Ali Al Salem does not contradict, from the Iranian point of view, the prospect of an agreement, we must refer to the analysis published by political scientist Vali Nasr in the Financial Times ⁴. 

• According to him, the dominant reading in Tehran, shared widely across the political spectrum, is that American concessions appear too good to be true. Their perceived objective: to lull Iranian vigilance before “finishing the job”.

The American-Iranian researcher and historian outlines the three-pronged deterrence doctrine developed by the Islamic Republic:

• First, the Strait of Hormuz, of which Tehran can accept the reopening but refuses to cede control, especially if the Yemeni Houthis were to simultaneously compress traffic in the Red Sea during a future conflict. The collection of tolls would also make it possible to weaken the American secondary sanctions regime.
• Then, the nuclear issue: Iran would possibly agree to suspend enrichment, but on condition that the concessions remain reversible. Retaining control of its stock of highly enriched uranium, even if diluted, would allow it to remain a few weeks from a possible breakthrough – an argument presented by Iranian officials as the only way to dissuade Washington from returning to war.
• Finally, make America pay a price. According to Nasr, the Guardians estimate that alone the cost of a war already estimated at 29 billion dollars and 14 American lives can modify the presidential calculation. The strike on Ali Al Salem, which destroyed expensive equipment, is part of this logic of attrition.