US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would begin escorting stranded third-country ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday as part of the Project Freedom (“Liberty Project”). Why did the United States decide to launch such an operation?
Stéphane Audrand : Let us first remember that with Donald Trump, we are not in a classic politico-military sequence, within the framework of an operation built on feasibility plans and calculations. The American leader regularly announces measures, which are sometimes planned, and sometimes not. It is not known whether the US Navy discovered ” Project freedom ” at the same time as the press, although it is likely that they have been planning on this subject for several weeks.
The Americans probably have in mind the maritime clashes between the United States and Iran during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. In 1988, the American operation ” Praying Mantis “, a naval air battle carried out under the presidency of Ronald Reagan in the Persian Gulf, resulted in the destruction of most of the classic Iranian naval forces.
But at the time, traffic was limited to crude oil and there were fewer ships. Since the 2000s, the economic growth of countries in the region has seen the production of refined products significantly increase. Oil makes it possible to produce compounds for plastics, agricultural fertilizers, sulfur and helium for electronic chips, which circulate in the strait. Merchant traffic has therefore increased considerably since the 1980s. There are on average around a hundred ships per day, for just over three million tonnes of freight. The matter cannot therefore, by definition, be reduced to the escort of a few oil tankers by a handful of warships.
What would be the objectives of the American escort?
Two scenarios exist: the first would consist of considering the idea of a political staging, attributable to humanitarian objectives. Remember that many merchant ships have been stuck in the Gulf for weeks, with hundreds of sailors on board who are currently living in very difficult conditions: it is imperative to get them out. It would not be surprising if the Iranians accepted that some of the ships concerned would leave the Gulf, as part of a political ballet orchestrated in advance. Their image, notably weakened among the Gulf countries after the Iranian strikes targeting the latter at the start of the war, could be enhanced. Ditto with Westerners, while the 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is currently being held in New York. The Iranians would benefit from a posture of reasonable leaders, which serves the negotiations.
The second scenario consists of imagining that the US Navy passes through the Strait of Hormuz by force.
We would then enter another dimension, that which consists of opening by force a maritime zone in the coastal fringe. This option is the most complicated in naval strategy, since it includes an air, land and maritime dimension. We must in fact ensure American supremacy throughout the area, from entry into the Gulf of Oman to the bottom of the Persian Gulf. This would involve paralyzing the adversary’s “strike capabilities” over 1,500 kilometers of the Iranian coast, thus neutralizing the stocks and depots of mines and anti-ship drones, the missile batteries, the small flotillas of the Revolutionary Guards armed with rockets… And all this, in the duration. We must also remember the danger of mines in the strait, even if it is likely that the Iranians have only laid a few dozen, and not thousands as they would like people to believe. The United States, for its part, has probably surveyed the area with sonars, and is potentially sufficiently confident in its ability to open a channel.
The operation is therefore very risky if it is not preceded by an American campaign of strikes on the coastal areas, especially since many analysts believe that Iran still retains sufficient strike force to defend the strait. If the Americans launch without the agreement of the Iranians, it’s a recipe for a heavy attack.
Iran rightly claimed this morning to have struck an American warship near the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington denies…
The Iranians could indeed decide to target American forces with their missiles and their small flotillas. This would be a disaster scenario: if an American destroyer is sent to the bottom by the Iranian navy, the conflict enters another dimension. Even if the operation launched by Donald Trump in Iran on February 28 was illegal from the point of view of international law, the Iranian closure of merchant traffic in international waters and the attacks against civilian ships are just as illegal.
The Europeans, until now very cautious, could decide that these Iranian strikes go beyond the limits. Ditto for the American Congress, which was to decide on May 2, at the end of 60 days of conflict, on the continuation of military operations. In reality, Donald Trump is launching a political trial balloon here: he is trying to find out who approves of such an escort, and who opposes it.
[…]
> Read the rest of the interview on Figaro site
