Despite the exchange of strikes which have resumed in recent days, the Iranian regime displays “a feeling of triumph†, writes Arash Azizi, one of Iran’s most renowned specialists, in the American magazine The Atlantic.
A satisfaction “compréhensible†, underlines the Iranian-American journalist and historian, because he is “fort possible†that Donald Trump “gives in to Iranian demands, to which he has long opposed†, to conclude the agreement aimed at ending the war, in negotiations for several days.
However, he tempers, a possible end to the conflict – still distant given the exchanges of fire which have resumed in recent days – will place the Islamic Republic “faced with a multitude of unresolved problems†.
“Environmental protection taxâ€
What is the regime’s declared triumphalism based on? According to a source close to the Iranian side, the agreement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would follow the lifting of the Iranian and American blockades, could grant Tehran the possibility of “collect an environmental protection tax†the revenues of which could be shared with Oman and other countries in the region, which would therefore jointly exercise sovereignty over the strait.
And this without taking into account that part of the billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets could be released.
In addition, on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, which should be the subject of subsequent negotiations, Donald Trump declared that he could accept that Iran commits to diluting its highly enriched uranium on its territory.
If such an agreement, the outlines of which are not “not unreasonable from the perspective of a compromise†, was concluded, it would constitute “a victory for the Islamic Republic†, I am the Saint of Arash.
“The regime would not only have survived a major military offensive by the United States and Israel, but it would have emerged with a deal more advantageous than any offered before the war.â€
Iran has “alienated its Arab neighborsâ€
However, this agreement “will not solve Iran’s problems†, tempers the Iranian-American journalist and historian.
Tehran has, it seems, not succeeded in forcing Israel to end its war against Lebanese Hezbollah, Azizi specifies. More broadly, Iran has “alienated his Arab neighbors†, and the Hebrew state has undoubtedly not said its last word regarding this “adversaire déterminé à le détruireâ€.
Additionally, the country will need to strike a nuclear deal to get the sanctions relief it needs to rebuild its economy.
“Whatever happens, the Islamic Republic will have its work cut out to govern its exhausted population and rebuild its economy and infrastructure… writes Arash Azizi. And to conclude: “The Islamic Republic’s leaders may soon discover that peace problems are the hardest to solve.â€
