Strait of Hormuz, Russia, Fed: the three sources of tension which are already shaking the world economy

In brief

• The Strait of Hormuz concentrates nearly 20% of the world’s oil transported by sea and remains under high tension since the escalation in the Middle East.

• The Gulf’s alternative export capacities remain very limited compared to the volumes usually transported through this strategic passage.

• Energy prices are rising again, reviving concerns about global inflation.

• The Russian economy is showing signs of running out of steam after several years of resilience under sanctions.

• The American Federal Reserve must now deal with a slowdown in the job market and a risk of renewed inflation.

• In this context, physical assets such as gold bars, silver bars and gold coins find a central place in asset diversification strategies.

Strait of Hormuz: the crossing point that worries the markets

 

Barely 29 nautical miles at its narrowest point. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most sensitive energy locks on the planet. Every day, nearly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it, or around a fifth of the world’s oil trade transported by sea.

Since the military escalation in the Middle East, markets now monitor every naval movement in the area. Several shipping companies have already reduced their rotations and insurance premiums are exploding on certain strategic routes.

The problem goes well beyond crude oil. An essential part of the Gulf’s liquefied natural gas exports also depends on this maritime route. Unlike oil, bypass capabilities remain extremely limited.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do have certain alternative pipelines, but their cumulative capacity remains much lower than the volumes which normally pass through Hormuz. In short: even without total closure, the slightest prolonged disruption is enough to strain global markets.

Also read: Gold advances as the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the slowdown in the Russian economy fuel lasting uncertainty on global energy and foreign exchange markets.

Energy prices are coming back under pressure

 

Since the start of the crisis, the energy markets have once again been operating in a climate of great nervousness. Brent returned above $100 per barrel during peaks in tension, while European natural gas contracts are clearly rising again.

Europe remains particularly exposed. After reducing its dependence on Russian gas since 2022, the continent has turned heavily towards LNG from the Gulf and the United States. Any lasting disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz therefore immediately revives the European energy risk.

Japan and India also appear vulnerable. The two Asian economies remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbons imported from the Middle East, particularly for their oil and gas supplies.

Added to this is another factor that is often underestimated: fertilizers. The Persian Gulf plays a major role in global exports of urea and agricultural inputs. A lasting increase in energy costs could quickly be transmitted to global agricultural prices, just as several regions enter their planting season.

 

Russia shows signs of running out of steam

 

For several years, the Russian economy surprised many observers by resisting Western sanctions better than expected. However, this phase seems to be losing its vigor.

The slowdown in energy revenues is starting to weigh more heavily on public finances. Hydrocarbons remain essential for Moscow, even if their budgetary weight has decreased since the start of the Ukrainian conflict.

The labor market also reveals structural imbalances. Russian unemployment remains extremely low, around 2%, but this situation above all reflects a labor shortage fueled by demographic aging, departures abroad and military needs.

The demographic dynamic continues to deteriorate. The Russian population has been gradually declining for several years, increasing tensions on certain strategic industries.

For the Kremlin, the challenge becomes more complex: sustainably financing the military effort while avoiding excessive pressure on households and businesses. Moscow still retains room for budgetary maneuver and debt, but the economic trajectory appears less comfortable than in 2023 or 2024.

 

The Fed caught between inflation and economic slowdown

 

In the United States, the situation is becoming just as delicate for the Federal Reserve.

On the one hand, geopolitical tensions fuel a risk of inflationary recovery via energy. Historically, oil booms have often contaminated the prices of transportation, food and consumer goods.

On the other hand, several economic indicators show a gradual loss of steam in the American job market. The unemployment rate is rising slightly and some companies are slowing down their recruitment.

This scenario greatly complicates the Fed’s strategy. Lowering rates too quickly could risk reigniting inflation. Keeping them high for too long could, however, accelerate the economic slowdown.

The American budgetary situation adds additional pressure. The federal debt now exceeds $38 trillion, while the interest paid each year by Washington is approaching historically high levels.

In an environment where energy costs are rising again and public deficits remain massive, the markets are beginning to fear a new phase of global bond tensions.

According to our expert: The multiplication of geopolitical shocks in 2026 gives tangible assets like physical gold a renewed appeal that institutional investors and individual savers can no longer ignore.

Physical gold and silver regain their defensive role

 

When geopolitical risks increase simultaneously on multiple fronts, investors generally return to tangible assets.

Gold bars, gold coins and silver bars thus find a defensive function in many portfolios. Unlike traditional financial assets, they do not depend on a central bank or a sovereign issuer.

In an environment marked by energy tensions, high public deficits and still unstable inflation, physical precious metals are once again becoming for many savers a tool for wealth diversification and protection against macroeconomic uncertainties.