Finally, the agreement between Iran and the United States is no longer imminent

Visit to Tehran by the head of the Pakistan army, mediator of the discussions, all-out diplomatic contacts in the Gulf and positive declarations from both sides: the situation, which had been deadlocked for weeks, seemed to be unblocked on Saturday May 23. Enough to relieve the markets where oil prices fell below the $100 mark this Monday, May 25.

“It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on many of the issues under discussion.”commented this Monday, May 25, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaïl Baghaï.

On a possible agreement between the United States and Iran, Marco Rubio reassures Israel

« Mais de là à dire que signing an agreement is imminent, no one can say.”he added, accusing Washington of being fickle.

Donald Trump wants to slow down the game

The American president also tempered hopes of a rapid conclusion. “Either the Iran deal will be an excellent and meaningful deal, or there will be no deal.”he wrote on Truth Social, while his Israeli ally insists on the need for« eliminer entièrement la menace nucléaire » – a point that Tehran does not want to address immediately.

Already on Sunday, while American and Iranian officials reported a breakthrough in discussions to find an agreement ending the war, Donald Trump called for “Don’t rush to make a deal†with Tehran.

Furthermore, the American president demanded this Monday from Muslim-majority countries, primarily Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to normalize their relations with Israel within the framework of a potential peace agreement on Iran, by signing the Abraham Accords. Enough to relaunch a new cycle of negotiations.

The thorny Strait of Hormuz

The markets prefer to hold back progress, with the hope of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockage of which by Tehran since the start of the war has caused black gold prices to soar.

Seeming to open the door to compromise, Iran spoke of fees for « services de navigation »rather than tolls, imposed on ships transiting the strait. In exchange, he demands the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports, which Donald Trump has said he wants to maintain in force. « jusqu’à ce qu’un accord soit conclu, certifié et signé ».

As part of behind-the-scenes negotiations, China, more than half of whose crude imports transported by sea come from the Middle East, mainly via the Strait, received Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Beijing on Monday.

The Iranian assets dispute…

Another dispute is the unfreezing of Iranian assets blocked abroad due to American sanctions.

Iran is demanding a release of part of these assets at the first stage and the establishment of a clear mechanism to guarantee the release of other funds, according to a « source informée » quoted by Tasnim Agency.

According to this source, disagreements persist on the subject. The latter is crucial for an Iran weakened by decades of sanctions and war, according to analyst Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

…And that of the Lebanese front

Finally, there remains the Lebanese front of the conflict, « la pilule empoisonnée » which could derail the discussions, warns Ali Vaez. According to Tehran, the ceasefire must apply to all fronts of the regional war, including in Lebanon.

“Iran cannot afford to sacrifice Hezbollah which came to its aid, but by insisting on this point it offers Israel a way to derail a deal between Iran and the United States.”relave l’expert.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured Sunday that Donald Trump had reiterated “le droit” of Israel to defend itself.

While we wait for Trump’s ballroom, how long will this gaping hole stay in the White House?

What we know about the shooting that broke out near the White House in Washington