War in the Middle East: French VSEs/SMEs still spared by a "major degradation"according to a study

Companies are indeed noticing an impact of the war, mainly linked to the increase in energy costs. But this weight remains limited for the moment.

The bosses of French VSEs/SMEs remain optimistic about their cash flow and their investment intentions, despite the conflict in the Middle East, which has nevertheless had a negative impact, according to a study published Tuesday May 19.

The opinions on their cash flow of the managers interviewed for this Bpifrance Le Lab and Rexecode barometer from April 13 to 26, six to eight weeks after the start of the war, are stable on the current cash flow or even slightly improved for that of the next three months. Likewise,

intentions to invest this year increase by one point

compared to the previous quarter.

“No major deterioration on these two points this quarter, it’s a little surprise”, observes Baptiste Thornary, head of the macroeconomics department at Bpifrance, to AFP. Yet,

62% of business leaders say they see a negative impact

conflict over their cash flow or results. But only 25% mention a “significant” impact, although there are sectoral differences, with transport being the most affected.

For 76% of affected businesses, the difficulties come from rising costs, energy or otherwise. But

69% of affected VSEs and SMEs announce that they want to pass on all or part of this increase

in their selling prices.

Pussée de l’inflation?

This would be a factor of additional inflation, while the takeoff in consumer prices – +2.2% in April over one year, compared to less than 1% before the war – was almost entirely due to the rise in energy prices alone.

The barometer also focuses on the progression of artificial intelligence (AI) in VSEs/SMEs. From now on,

58% of companies say they use AI tools

but these are mainly (34%) employee initiatives without a formalized framework. However, 35% of VSEs/SMEs do not intend to use AI in the near future. Its effects are starting to appear: 43% of managers see a positive impact on employee productivity, 8% on turnover (compared to 1% negative), and the outlook is even better for 2030.

The feared drain on employment is not certain: 6% of managers currently describe a drop in their workforce linked to AI, and 1% an increase. By 2030, 18% anticipate a decline, but 6% an increase.

Business leaders, summarizes Bpifrance research director Philippe Mutricy, “do not seem in the frame of mind to use AI to fire employees in order to increase their profitability, but rather to gain growth and strengthen their competitiveness”.