Raw materials and geopolitical tension

Global System Shifts as Energy Prices Climb – Geopolitical tensions and energy transition are reshaping commodity markets and risk management.

At a time when Brent surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 and commodity markets reveal growing fragility, successive geopolitical shocks, global economic slowdown, and reconfiguration of trade flows are leading to a lasting transformation of the markets.

Three dominant dynamics are at the core of these changes. The first involves geopolitical fragmentation. The Sino-American rivalry, tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the emergence of autonomous economic blocs are disrupting traditional supply routes. Players are adapting to a multitude of regulations, sanctions, and logistical constraints. Energy exchanges are being reshaped, regional arbitrages are becoming essential, and accentuating the strategic dimension of resource access.

This fragility manifested at the end of February 2026 as American-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered a series of retaliations, leading to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic corridor, through which about 20% of global oil consumption and a significant portion of LNG passes, had never been physically blocked before. Brent reached $119.50, its highest level since 2022. In response, the IEA decided to release 400 million barrels of global strategic reserves. In this context, banks play an essential role in helping clients manage risk and finance alternative supply chains.

Commodities are at the heart of a global system where volatility, geopolitical tensions, and energy transition intersect.

The second dynamic is macroeconomic. After a period of inflation and monetary tightening, global growth remains uneven. Demand for commodities is positive yet uneven: vibrant in energy transition, weakened in heavy industry. Rising oil prices weigh on importing countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which represent around 75% of oil exports and 59% of LNG exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflationary pressures and economic slowdown. Faced with currency volatility and margin pressures, banks intervene as providers of liquidity and financing, allowing companies to preserve working capital and secure cash flow needs.

The third dynamic involves the structural transformation of markets. Needs related to decarbonization, strategic metals, LNG, biofuels coexist with persistent demand for hydrocarbons. This ambivalence creates trading opportunities but reinforces the need for risk management, capital management, and data handling. Resilient companies now view risk as a strategic resource.

The current crisis underscores the reality of global energy security. Historically, coordinated releases of stocks have been used: 1991 (Gulf War), 2005 (Hurricane Katrina), 2011 (Libyan civil war), 2022 (Ukraine invasion). In this context, the aim was to mitigate potential supply loss, not a physical closure of a major strait. Resorting to reserves reflects the severity of current tensions.

Commodities are at the heart of a global system, where volatility, geopolitical tensions, and energy transition intersect. Actor resilience will depend on their ability to navigate in an environment where stability is no longer the norm, securing their supplies, and fully integrating geo-energy risks into their strategic decisions.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is the first in history to involve a physical blockage of a major energy corridor. It invalidates crisis management models based on historical precedents and forces organizations to reassess their fundamental assumptions about supply resilience.

In a changing environment, the ability to anticipate, model, and absorb shocks becomes a competitive factor. Companies able to articulate energy transition, supply security, and strategic innovation will strengthen their position in a global market. States are strengthening their energy autonomy strategies, while companies are assessing their supply chains in light of new systemic risks. This evolution marks a shift: commodities are no longer just at the heart of economic exchanges but also of geopolitical power dynamics. Banks play a crucial role in supporting actors in finding alternative routes while providing the essential liquidity to absorb market volatility.