The national council of Renaissance designated the former Prime Minister this Tuesday evening as candidate for 2027. But for the moment, his candidacy is not really taking off, caught between the mayor of Le Havre and the former Minister of the Interior.
A little more patience. Oscillating in recent months between a cure of silence and saturation of the media space, here is the former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in the deep end of the presidential election, or almost.
Meeting Tuesday evening, the National Council of Renaissance, a sort of party parliament, adopted a motion which “calls” on the party boss “to be a candidate for the 2027 presidential election”. All that will now be missing is a vote without suspense from activists for its official entry into the arena in the coming weeks.
“His candidacy is obvious and it came about very naturally. We are all in line behind him,” says a deputy close to Gabriel Attal.
Un élan très mesuré
However, the former head of government, thanked by Emmanuel Macron after the dissolution fiasco, does not only have good news on the table. The thirty-year-old who released his first book at the beginning of the month, multiplying the media and bookstore signings on this occasion, is not really celebrating in the polls.
He only received 11.5% of voting intentions in the first round according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV, very far from being able to qualify for the second round. “He is going to gain momentum in his relationship with the French, it is now that it is happening”, wants to believe one of his close friends with BFMTV.
Gabriel Attal can, however, be pleased to remain in the hearts of the French. According to a study carried out by Big pour Les Échos, the deputy for Hauts-de-Seine remains the fourth most popular political figure.
Enough to encourage him to believe in his destiny, even if it means annoying within the party itself. Her predecessor at Matignon, Élisabeth Borne, left the party’s executive office with a bang on May 6, in frank disagreement with Gabriel Attal both on the substance of his ideas and on his way of managing the movement like a “coms agency”.
“It’s never ideal when someone leaves, but their political weight is still relatively limited and I’m not sure that it will upset things,” squeaks a Macronist elected official.
“Far from being unanimous”
Perhaps so, but less than the departure of the former head of government who nevertheless remains a member of Renaissance, it is above all the launch of her own pharmacy which has a bad effect.
Several well-identified former French ministers joined her, such as the former Minister of Justice Éric Dupond-Moretti or the former Minister of Health Agnès Buzyn.
“The problem is that it is far from unanimous and that if you do not bring your camp together, it is complicated to convince the French,” complains former minister Jean-Baptiste Moreau, one of his main internal opponents.
In the meantime, the boss of Renaissance can boast of remaining the favorite among Emmanuel Macron’s voters. Among the French who voted for the Ensemble candidates during the legislative elections in 2024, 42% of people questioned in an Elabe poll last January favor Gabriel Attal to represent the central bloc. Just behind him, Édouard Philippe received 40% of the voting intentions.
The mayor of Le Havre is the big stone in the shoe of the former youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic. Can the common base, if it appears divided, really prevail in the end?
Nothing is less certain. Obviously, Gabriel Attal is well aware of this, he who has already opened the door to an agreement with his predecessor at Matignon so that the less well placed of the two withdraws from the presidential election at the start of 2027. But on one condition, “that there is indeed a risk of a second round between LFI and the RN”, launched the thirty-year-old on France info on May 7. “There is an obsession among Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe not to be the one who divides,” explains a Modem deputy to BFMTV.
“No one is suicidal”
To try to reach an agreement if necessary, a “liaison committee” which brings together executives from Renaissance, Horizons and Modem to discuss throughout the presidential campaign has been launched. The next date for this committee is scheduled for June 10 according to our information, and Gabriel Attal will be represented by Franck Riester.
“No one is suicidal in the central bloc and we will all be able to come together if necessary,” wants to believe Senator Renaissance and member of the party leadership, Xavier Iacovelli.
It remains to ensure that tensions do not explode between Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe in the coming months. The two men seem to be respecting some sort of non-aggression pact…for now. During his major speech in Rouen last Sunday, the boss of Horizons did not fail to scratch Gabriel Attal, without explicitly naming him.
“A year is both very short and very long”, “which perhaps explains why some are in a hurry”, quipped the former First Head of Government. Édouard Philippe, however, focused almost all of his attacks on Jordan Bardella, likely candidate in 2027 if Marine Le Pen is convicted in second instance by the courts on July 7, clearly anxious not to go too far.
“Édouard Philippe like Gabriel Attal are very steadfast in the fight against the extremes. Neither of them will take the risk that LFI or the RN wins in the end. It’s obvious,” says Renaissance MP Prisca Thevenot, very close to the Macronist.
Skepticism
But can the president of Renaissance rise in the polls without upsetting his main competitor? The question is complete. And even in the event of a possible agreement between the two men, it will be necessary that the one who withdraws manages to find his new place in the campaign system of the one who remains, just like part of his entourage. Enough to arouse a certain skepticism.
“On paper, it works. In reality, I don’t know many people who want to be president and who voluntarily step aside,” remarks a Modem MP.
Last stone in Gabriel Attal’s shoe: the candidacy of the former Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau. The president of LR formalized his entry into the race two months ago and since then, he has multiplied the proposals without always breaking the sound barrier.
Above all, the senator from Vendée rarely fails to scratch Emmanuel Macron’s record, sending Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe back-to-back.
“The goal is not to vote for or against the results of the two five-year terms but to write the future. Between the RN which is constantly throwing this out and Bruno Retailleau, we will have to find the martingale”, sighs a Macronist senator.
“We do not have the same ideas as him, not the same leadership, and not the same political family. Our challenge is that our ideas are represented in the debate and we are ready to debate project against project,” replied the MP Renaissance Prisca Thévenot.
Concurrence à distance
Could Bruno Retailleau possibly withdraw from the starting line if his candidacy does not take off to avoid the dispersion of votes from the right and the center? For the moment, the hypothesis is not at all in the air.
“If we don’t have a candidate, we recognize that we have a tiny group in the Assembly in 2027 and above all that we no longer have any existence against the RN. It’s impossible,” says an LR deputy.
The trio of competitors will have the opportunity to showcase their competition in the coming weeks by holding a series of meetings in the coming weeks. Gabriel Attal is organizing a big rally in Paris on May 30 followed by Bruno Retailleau on June 20 before Édouard Philippe launches into 1,000 simultaneous apartment meetings by video on June 25.
