This time, Donald Trump will not have the privilege of a private tour of the Forbidden City in Beijing. Unlike in 2017, the welcome was much colder this Wednesday for the return of the American president to the Middle Kingdom. While mutual respect between the two superpowers was palpable nine years ago, this year, this is no longer the case. Despite the displayed cordiality, diplomatic relations have deteriorated since Donald Trump returned to office. And the balance of power seems to have shifted. So, what is the real state of current relations between these two world powers?
“The America, an empire in decline”
The New York Times mentions a China that is increasingly viewing Trump’s America as an empire in decline. For several decades, the two blocs – the American liberal and Chinese communist – have had many points of contention. But the issue of respect or even a certain form of admiration persisted for China as it emerged vis-a-vis Uncle Sam. Now, the Asian giant considers itself at least equal to the United States, to the point of wondering if it has even become the world’s leading power.
Symbolizing “utter chaos” or even the “decline” of the United States, the conflict in the Middle East will be at the heart of this Wednesday’s summit. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz paralyzes Beijing since China imports more than 70% of the oil it needs through this strategic maritime corridor. But Xi Jinping is well aware that this blockade also heavily impacts the United States.
“The crucial role of China in the war in the Middle East”
Officially, China presents itself as a mediator in the prolonged war in the Middle East. The Chinese president promised that his country would “continue to play a constructive role” in restarting talks with Iran. Furthermore, he even seeks to appear as the guarantor of peace because China has real influence over Tehran.
As the American operation in Iran drags on and Trump’s popularity plummets, the Chinese president could take advantage of this weakness at the negotiating table. And gain diplomatic leverage over his archenemy.
“A fierce trade rivalry”
On the commercial front, the United States and China currently maintain very tense diplomatic relations. Since Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs last year, American imports of Chinese products have significantly decreased, from $108.5 billion in the first quarter of 2024 to $67.3 billion in 2026. In two years, the share of Chinese products in total US imports has dropped from 13.8% to 7.8%, due to American tariffs ranging from 25% to 30%.
However, China continues to benefit from the American market through countries like Vietnam or Taiwan: Vietnamese exports to the United States have increased by 50%, and Taiwanese exports by 94%. The goal is to suffocate the Chinese economy, but cleverly, it bypasses the restrictions. Despite this trade rivalry, both powers remain economically dependent on each other.
“Silent standoff in the South China Sea”
In the background, this summit takes place amid deeper distrust, especially in the South China Sea. Beijing claims almost the entire area and has turned some reefs into real military bases. The US Navy regularly carries out operations to challenge these claims.
The Iranian conflict has not eased this tension. Huge no-fly zones were imposed by Beijing in the South and East China Seas between March 27 and May 6. China uses these points of friction as low-cost test zones. “There is no other possible use than military,” explains Benjamin Blandin, an expert in maritime security, to AFP. This can be for missile firing, conducting aerial exercises, etc. We don’t know. “This feeds a new source of tension between two cautious countries towards each other.
