Three times a year, The New York Times updates an infographic that tracks the battle to reshape Congress ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans and Democrats are fighting for control of the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority is hanging by a thread as they seek to redraw district maps where representatives are elected.
Currently, Republicans have 5 more seats than Democrats in the House of Representatives, which has 435 seats and is completely renewed every two years (along with one-third of the Senate). According to The New York Times, the recent redistricting efforts could earn them an additional 6 to 9 seats in total next November. This is significant in a country where the number of truly contested seats has decreased.
Donald Trump started this battle by urging local party officials to redraw districts. It is usually up to state legislators to redraw districts to reflect population changes. This practice, known as gerrymandering, dates back to the early 19th century.
Judicial boost for Republicans
Texas Republicans were the first to respond to the President’s call in 2025; other party officials followed suit. Democrats tried to fight back in states where they are the majority, particularly in California and Virginia. However, the state’s Supreme Court invalidated their new electoral map on May 8, a major setback for Democrats, who have now appealed to the federal Supreme Court.
The conservative-leaning federal Supreme Court gave another boost to Republicans on April 29 by invalidating the creation of a new majority-black district in Louisiana. This decision altered the scope of the civil rights law and paved the way for several Southern states where Republicans aim to eliminate majority-black districts. Some have already adopted new maps, while others have adjusted their electoral calendars to allow redistricting to take effect as early as this year.
Democrats are still favored to win the House of Representatives, according to The Wall Street Journal, due to the unpopularity of the war in Iran and high gas prices. They acknowledge, however, that they will struggle to catch up with Republicans in the gerrymandering race.
