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Donald Trump is putting the pressure on again. The American president estimated, this Monday, May 11, that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was now “on life support”, after having violently criticized the Iranian response to the American plan supposed to put a lasting end to the conflict. On the other hand, Iran assures that it is ready to “retaliate” to any new attack.
After more than a month of truce, diplomatic discussions remain deadlocked. The two camps continue to exchange proposals, via the Pakistani mediator, to try to consolidate the ceasefire, without major progress.
From the White House, Donald Trump brushed aside the latest Iranian response, deeming it “good to throw in the trash”. The American president then launched a particularly dark image: “The ceasefire is on massive life support, like when the doctor comes in and says: ‘Sir, your loved one has exactly a 1% chance of living'”.
Tehran ready “to retaliate and teach a lesson”
Tehran was quick to respond. On
In a call to Fox News, Donald Trump also indicated that he was considering relaunching his operation intended to protect ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran since the Israeli-American offensive on the 28th. February.
However, this mission was suspended on May 5, with Washington believing that “great progress” had been made towards an agreement with Tehran – an agreement which ultimately never came to fruition.
Another element likely to fuel escalation: depending on the Wall Street Journalthe United Arab Emirates are said to have carried out strikes in April against Iranian oil installations on the island of Lavan, in the Gulf. An implication which has not been confirmed by Abu Dhabi, but which could mark a regional turning point.
“The greatest energy shock”
“The only thing we have demanded is Iran’s legitimate rights,” declared the spokesperson for Iranian diplomacy, Esmaïl Baghaï. Among Tehran’s demands: “the end of the war in the region”, the lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports and “the release of assets belonging to the Iranian people, unjustly blocked for years”.
Still according to the Wall Street JournalIran would propose a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a simultaneous easing of the American blockade. Tehran would also bring up discussions on nuclear power within 30 days and agree to “dilute” part of its enriched uranium, while refusing to dismantle its nuclear installations.
The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up oil prices. Tuesday morning, Brent exceeded $105 per barrel, while WTI approached $100.
For Amin Nasser, boss of the Saudi giant Aramco, this war caused “the greatest energy shock” ever known. “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, it would still take months for the market to rebalance,” he warned, estimating that a return to normal might not occur before 2027.
A risk of a “major humanitarian crisis”
For its part, the UN also fears the humanitarian consequences of a prolonged blockage of the strait, crucial not only for world oil, but also for the transport of fertilizers. Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of a UN task force, warned that a “major humanitarian crisis” could occur “within a few weeks”.
For the Soufan Center, “Tehran shows no sign of capitulation” and is counting on the surge in oil prices and shortages to push Donald Trump to end the conflict without obtaining the concessions he demands, particularly on nuclear power.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, despite a truce officially in force since April 17, strikes continue between Israel and pro-Iranian Hezbollah. New discussions between Lebanese and Israeli officials are to be held Thursday and Friday in Washington in an attempt to pave the way for peace negotiations.
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