In 2026, Japan will update its national security strategy, already revised in December 2022. The regional security context has in fact further deteriorated significantly for Tokyo, which finds itself facing an authoritarian and triple front. nuclear power whose solidarity is deepening, raising fears of coordination with dramatic implications for the archipelago.
At the same time, the underlying trend which sees the United States closing in on increasingly narrowly defined national interests is accentuated. The resolutely transactional and cynical approach of the second Trump administration is encouraging Tokyo to accelerate investments in its defense capabilities in order to increase its contribution to the security alliance that binds it to the United States and to rebalance the roles within it.
This effort is accompanied by resolute steps to diversify its security partners, and attempt to maintain the conditions of a free and open Indo-Pacific space. Beyond its own defense, Japan has thus become a security provider in Asia and an essential strategic partner, including for Europeans.
The threat of unprecedented conflict
Tensions are escalating between Japan and its neighbors China, Russia and North Korea, as the war in Ukraine reignites fears of open conflict in Asia.
La Chine, risque n°1
China, which threatens the territorial integrity of the archipelago, constitutes Japan’s priority security risk. Chinese vessels have in fact been patrolling since 2012, and now almost permanently, in the waters contiguous to the Senkaku Islands, in the East China Sea 1. Beijing is thus seeking to call into question Japanese control over these islets that it claims. These incursions, led by the coast guard or fishermen rather than by the Chinese army, are part of a “grey zone” tactic, difficult to master without risking military escalation. This strategy of eroding the status quo is accompanied by regular naval and air incursions, putting constant pressure on the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (FAD).
While in 2000 the Japanese and Chinese defense budgets were equivalent, in 2020 Beijing is investing four times more than Tokyo in its defense, fundamentally calling into question the balance of power and the Japanese capacity for deterrence. The 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) describes China as an “unprecedented strategic challenge”.
In 2024 and 2025, the intensification of Chinese naval and air projections in the Pacific was accompanied by an increased frequency of passages in the Soya (or La Pérouse), Tsugaru, Miyako and Tsushima straits, surrounding the Japanese archipelago. Provocations are multiplying: intrusions into Japanese maritime and air spaces in August 2024, first passage of a Chinese aircraft carrier between Yonaguni and Iriomote, installation of a surveillance buoy in the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in November 2024, then unprecedented simultaneous deployment of two Chinese aircraft carriers in the Pacific in June 2025.
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>> An article to be found in full in the magazine International Issues d’avril-mai 2026.Â
