Back-to-back redistricting victories in court have Republicans gaining confidence in their midterm chances. But President Donald Trump’s lagging approval ratings and other political indicators continue to threaten the GOP’s grip on Congress six months out from the midterm elections.
The Virginia Supreme Court’s Friday decision blocking a gerrymandered map, which could have netted Democrats up to four House seats, comes less than two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the use of race in redistricting, which has Republican-led states moving to draw out majority-Black, Democratic-held districts in the South in the coming weeks.
But as one structural piece of the midterms gets better for Republicans, the overall national mood remains sour for the party. Poll after poll shows Trump’s approval below 40% and Americans deeply frustrated with his handling of the economy. Democratic strategists believe they are still favored to win back the House, despite the redistricting gains made by Republicans.
Carrie Dann, the managing editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told NBC News that Republicans have undoubtedly strengthened their structural advantage but that the national political environment remains grim for the GOP.
The Virginia ruling hits Democrats hard, as it was a key opportunity for them to gain seats in redistricting battles. Some of the redistricting gains are only tentative at this point, as past elections do not always predict future outcomes.
Republican strategists are optimistic due to recent redistricting wins and a fundraising edge, although Democrats feel confident about winning the majority in November. Trump’s approval ratings are low and there is frustration with his handling of the economy, which could impact Republican chances in the upcoming elections.
Both parties are gearing up for a contentious battle in the lead-up to the midterms, with Democrats confident in their recent successes despite challenges in redistricting. The economy and public sentiment remain key factors in shaping voter attitudes as November approaches.
