For the Arab world specialist, the Iranians have managed to direct negotiations with Washington in their favor with their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “Enriched uranium, where will it go?” asks Hasni Abidi in “La Matinale” on May 7.
Political scientist, specialist in the Arab world and director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (Cermam) in Geneva, Hasni Abidi deciphers, in “La Matinale” on Thursday, May 7, the challenges of the new phase of negotiations between Iran and the United States, while Donald Trump evokes an imminent agreement between the two parties.
This text corresponds to part of the transcription of the interview above. Click on the video to watch it in its entirety.
Jean-Baptiste Marteau: We have learned to take Donald Trump’s statements with great caution. But when he speaks to us in recent hours about an agreement that is going very well, and at the same time that he threatens Iran with resuming fighting if they do not sign this agreement, are you more on the optimistic or pessimistic side of this possible end to the war?
Hasni Abidi : He threatens because he wants to put pressure on the Iranians, because we expect a response from them. The study of the American proposal stopped when the Americans launched this operation, which was rejected by the Iranians. Today, the Iranians are studying this answer. The Pakistanis play a role, in my opinion, central and this is the first time that they are not only factors, facilitators, but that they intervene on the content. I think that there is an area of convergence between the American proposal, and also the Iranian proposal, since we have two agendas.
You think that there is possible convergence, and yet, it is still the same initial document, there are 14 proposals that are on the table. And when we read them last week, we said to ourselves that they were difficult to accept, particularly for the United States. What does that mean? That Donald Trump will have to accept many concessions?
But there are some differences, all the same. The Iranians demand international guarantees. This is not in the American proposal. The Iranians are asking to separate the two files, the first two phases. The ceasefire phase is separate from the agreement, that is to say from the negotiations which will last a month. The Iranians have always asked for a ceasefire, and then we will negotiate. This is why it is called a “framework agreement”. On the other hand, the Americans obtained the suspension of uranium enrichment and its possible transfer to another country. That’s a good point for them.
Jean-Mathieu Pernin: Uranium has been trading for 20 years, 25 years, we no longer know how many. We still see that Iran says: “But everyone does it, why not us?” In fact, this is their main argument. Afterwards, we can say that it is indeed a dictatorship, it is a totalitarian regime, but, in your opinion, is it an argument that can work with other nations, notably European ones, for example?
Yes, for Europeans, they agree. The Iranians say: “We can suspend, but for 15 years”. That’s the question now: where will this enriched uranium go? That’s the question. There are several alternatives: China, Russia, and even the American proposal. That is to say that the Americans buy this enriched uranium. And that is a very important element.
Jean-Baptiste Marteau: Is this an option that seems credible to you? Because at the start we say to ourselves that Iran will never agree to release this enriched uranium, which is a bit like their trophy, their number one means of pressure. Now there is the Strait of Hormuz too.
But even better, Donald Trump, in one of his speeches, said that what remains is dust. Today, we are determining the future of this uranium. The question is that, first, there should be a ceasefire. The Iranians are asking for guarantees, and we are moving on to the second phase, which, it is true, is the most important, and which will probably take place in Geneva. Today we are faced, above all, with an acceptance of two parts of the ceasefire. And with the Strait of Hormuz, you are right, the Iranians won. Instead of negotiating on uranium, this nuclear and ballistic program, and the harmful Iranian foreign policy, we are first negotiating around the Strait of Hormuz which, it must be remembered, was open before February 28.
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