Middle East: “Everyone says there are violations, but everyone also wants to stay below the threshold of total war,” notes Djilali Benchabane, geopolitics and strategy analyst

Three American ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz are still blocked this morning of Friday May 8. In response, the United States targeted Iranian military installations. But for Donald Trump, the ceasefire is still in force, while Tehran accuses the American president of having violated it. An incident described as “little trifle” by the American president, who threatens violent reprisals. To take stock of this extremely tense situation in the strait, “La Matinale” receives this Friday, May 8, Djilali Benchabane, analyst in geopolitics and strategy – director of the CEOS Strategy and Consulting firm.

This text corresponds to part of the transcription of the interview above. Click on the video to watch it in its entirety.

Djamel Mazi: The United Arab Emirates claimed to be facing missile and drone attacks by activating their anti-aircraft defense. Also with these exchanges of fire last night between the United States and Iran. Is the truce still in effect this morning?

Djilali Benchabane: It all depends on what we consider a truce. There is both the semantic dimension with what this truce really means, and then the operational reality. Today we are in an absurd situation where everyone says there are violations, but everyone also wants to stay below the threshold of total war. No one wants to go further, everyone tests themselves. We are paradoxically in this desire to further test the adversary, since the negotiation phase is still in progress. And finally, it is this kind of truce and breaking of truce which will serve, in my opinion, throughout a negotiation process, if it is to succeed.

Anthony Bellanger: With a particularity, this time: Saudi Arabia intervened two days ago, to explain to Donald Trump that there was no question of him setting up this operation “Project Freedom”, “Project freedom”, which consisted of removing from Iran its strong argument, that is to say control of the Strait of Hormuz, and try to force it militarily if necessary. Why did Saudi Arabia intervene with all its weight in the matter?

Because for Saudi Arabia, there is a first consequence, and we tend to underestimate it, it is the economic aspect. For Saudi Arabia, we must remember that we are in an extremely sensitive transition phase in its economy. The longer this war continues, the more it endangers this plan, which also makes Saudi Arabia potentially one of the engines of growth in the Gulf States. And she knows that, militarily speaking, the more this conflict continues, the more instability will persist, the more economic instability will interfere in its perspective. For Saudi Arabia, this is untenable. There is no good military solution, there is a political solution which they must arrive at quickly.

No military solution, yet Iran has just demonstrated that when we are a country of 90 million inhabitants and we had a world-class military force, we will say it like that, since they even succeeded in defeating the United States, that mattered in the region. And I think that the discussions will not be quite the same after this affair of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, compared to before. There would be a lot of things to negotiate in the region?

There will be a lot of things. For Iran, there is this question of reasserting its primacy over the Strait of Hormuz. It has become aware that its geographical position has become the major strategic asset, more than nuclear power. What is interesting is that today, nuclear power has become almost a secondary subject compared to the global consequences of the Strait of Hormuz. For Iran, there is no question of stepping aside. In this rhetoric of escalation, it demonstrates that it is capable of being resilient and that it is ready, if necessary, to increase even more pressure in relation to this exercise carried out by Washington.

Djamel Mazi: It is the economic nuclear weapon, I was going to say, of Iran. As the Americans have described it.

Not only an economic weapon, but above all it is a lever of pressure which allows it to be part of this reconfiguration of the world, which is ultimately built around economic conflict. We had the war in Ukraine and its consequences, the tax war by Donald Trump, and finally Iran, through the control of maritime flows, is opening a new field.

Click on the video to watch the interview in full.